Finland, Turkey, Argentina, Poland and Spain will vote in the coming months
There are five elections to follow in 2023. Because the consequences of the vote in the coming months in Finland, Turkey, Argentina, Poland and Spain will have repercussions all over the world.
Polls will open in Finland on April 2 for general elections. NATO membership, delayed by Turkey, is not in question. No party opposes this step. But the outgoing Social Democratic Premier, Sanna Marin, may not be rewarded by her government’s decision to join the Atlantic Alliance.
The Conservative Party (Kansalinen Kokoomus or National Coalition Party) has led the polls since mid-2021 and has been gaining strength since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If he wins a relative majority of votes, he could form a centre-right coalition with the Center Party (Kesk) and the populist True Finns, or a ‘grand coalition’ with the Social Democrats and another party.
Danish Social Democratic Premier Mette Frederiksen chose the second option after the November elections. If Finland follows through, it will demonstrate that old enemies are willing to become allies when threatened by parties that want radical change, whether left or right.
In the Turkey of strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, parliamentary and presidential elections will take place on 18 June. The ruling Justice and Development Party, the AKP, and its allied party, the National Movement Party, the MHP, have lost significant support. The second round of the presidential elections will take place on July 2 if none of the candidates wins the majority in the first round.
Argentina will vote on October 29, 2023. The governing Peronist Frente de Todos is behind in the polls, with inflation and the recession on the rise. The centre-right Juntos por el Cambio alliance leads the polls and is expected to win a majority of votes. The third liberal block of Freedom advances, with 23 percent approval. However, Argentina will go to the right.
In Poland, a country lined up in the front line in support of neighboring Ukraine, the Party of Law and Justice (PiS) at the center of criticism from the European Union for its anti-democratic practices, remains at the top in the polls in view of the next elections autumn, but below the 44 percent it received in the last legislative period.
Finally, Spain, the fourth European country by GDP and by population, will vote in December. The centre-right Partido Popular has led the polls since June and Vox, the nationalist and populist party, allied with the Brothers of Italy in Italy, is third. The two parties together will be able to control Parliament. The PSOE in government with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, and Podemos, will denounce the risk of extremism. The regional elections in May will provide a useful indicator of what comes next.