Bad weather doesn’t end, another 15 rainy days await us record-breaking May, no anticyclone

Bad weather in Italy gives no respite. The anticyclone responsible for the anomalous heat throughout 2022 has disappeared, explain the experts of the website “Good news for many, rains are coming against drought and cool temperatures for at least 15 days, bad news for holidaymakers and sun lovers”.

Mattia Gussoni, meteorologist of the website, confirms the absence of the great protagonist of 2022, the Camel, as the North African subtropical anticyclone is defined in meteorological jargon. At the moment we find a high pressure field, of obviously different origins, over Scandinavia, while perturbations and a series of cyclones roam the Mediterranean.

The trend indicates the possibility of remaining without an African anticyclone at least until the end of the month, but many maps of the prestigious ECMWF, the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts, indicate frequent cool and rainy phases even in June and think, even in August. Could we have a year without a summer?

The year without summer was 1816 due to the violent eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora which covered the sky with ashes reducing solar heating. More than 200 years have passed and, if we exclude violent eruptions similar to that of Tambora, next summer there will be, it could be less hot but there will be; moreover, due to the Global Warming in progress, even if there will be rains and thermal anomalies, we will touch at least 35°C, frequently. In short, the trend could reserve some surprises for next summer, but as always confirmations are needed.

Remaining in the field of certainties, Italy will be the scene of important meteorological movements in the next few hours, with an exceptional surprise arriving on Monday.

Over the weekend, with the absence of the African anticyclone, we will have frequent downpours in the centre-north alternating with moments of blue sky; only in the extreme south will the memory of the subtropical high pressure materialize with some heat peaks up to 30°C in Sicily, but then everything will vanish very soon.

In summary, in the next few hours we will have rain on the Major Islands moving towards the peninsular regions; overall, the Italian Saturday will experience a disturbed variability with alternating sun and downpours.

Tomorrow the weather will remain unstable with widespread rain in the Centre, it will be better in the North-West and in the South, but in the meantime the unexpected surprise will be prepared in mid-May.

A Tunisian cyclone will start moving dangerously north from Monday: the first heavy downpours will hit Sicily then, from the morning, they will reach the rest of the South and Center. It is a Tunisian cyclone that will deepen its eye up to 985 hPa, a very low pressure and capable of bringing extreme bad weather with storms and stormy winds.

The cyclone will affect all of Italy on Tuesday with the heaviest rains expected in Emilia Romagna and the Lower Tyrrhenian Sea, where flood situations cannot be ruled out. This is obviously a 3-4 day forecast, but unfortunately with a high degree of reliability: the Tunisian cyclone could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, it will rain in the wet and the situation of this record May will be even more worrying from the point of hydrogeological point of view, if the weather picture is 100% confirmed.


Saturday 13. In the north: unstable with scattered rains. In the middle: diffusely worsening from the afternoon. In the south: rains possible everywhere.

Sunday 14. In the North: scattered rains, more consistent in the Northeast. Middle: cloudy with frequent rain. In the south: cloudy on the peninsulas with some showers, sunny and warmer in Sicily.

Monday 15th. In the north: more sunny. Middle: worse towards evening. In the south: Tunisian cyclone arriving with severe weather, starting from Sicily.

Trend: new week with lots of rain, especially on Tuesday.