This is what emerges from the flash survey by the organization’s Study Center, which highlights how the decline in coronavirus infections could support tourism and services, but inflation is holding back household consumption. Regarding the rise in interest rates, he warns that “if the cost of credit goes up, the financial situation of companies, already complicated by the pandemic in 2020, will worsen”
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“The trend of the Italian GDP in the second quarter of 2022 is very uncertain”. This is said by Confindustria, based on what emerges from the flash survey of its Study Center. Furthermore, regarding the rise in interest rates, he warns that “if the cost of credit goes up, the financial situation of companies, already complicated by the pandemic in 2020, will worsen”.
Confindustria: “GDP trend in the second quarter very uncertain”
“The trend of Italian GDP in the second quarter of 2022 is very uncertain, a synthesis of contrasting dynamics: overall, it appears very weak. In fact, the war in Ukraine continues and with it the increase in commodity prices and the scarcity of materials, which companies are facing “, explains Confindustria. Which underlines how the decline in coronavirus infections could support tourism and services, but the inflation is holding back household consumption.
Increase in interest rates: “For each point, +1.5 billion in interest for companies”
The Confindustria Study Center, on the front of the rate hike, warns that “if the cost of credit goes up, the financial situation of companies, already complicated by the pandemic in 2020, will worsen”. “Given the stock of bank debt of households and businesses, a rate hike would translate into a heavy increase in borrowing costs,” he explains. And again: “Initially, it would only concern new loan operations and existing variable rate loans (such as mortgages). Once fully operational, within a few years, it would cover the entire stock: +1.5 billion interest in the first year for companies for each point of rate increase (CSC estimates) “. Furthermore, Confindustria continues, “the rise in interest rates on BTPs also increases public spending on interest, albeit gradually, as the stock of public securities is renewed at higher rates (7.1 years the average duration of the debt). . In 2022, the increase concerns over 300 billion euros of maturing securities. Furthermore, to avoid further increasing the spread, a prudent budgetary policy will be needed, just when more interventions are needed to combat the cost of energy “.
Source-tg24.sky.it