To date, the prices of food goods sold by industry to large-scale distribution chains have grown by 15% compared to last year (trend% change July-August 2022-2021), while inflation at the same period recorded a value just over + 9% (the difference between the purchase price and the sale price marks a -5.7% to the detriment of large retailers).
2022, and perhaps even more so 2023, could be the most difficult year in the history of large-scale distribution in Italy. On the one hand, in fact, retail companies have to deal with the exceptional rise in industrial price lists and the explosion of expensive energy. On the other hand, the difficulties of final demand and the need to cushion the effect on the consumer’s purchasing capacity. To date, in fact, the prices of food goods sold by industry to large-scale distribution chains have grown by 15% compared to last year (trend% change July-August 2022-2021), while inflation at the same time mark a value of just over + 9% (the difference between the purchase price and the sale price marks a -5.7% to the detriment of large retailers). And above all the purchase prices of basic products are shooting upwards, so seed oil marks + 40.9%, olive oil + 33.1% and pasta (+ 30.9%, flour + 25.4%). This is underlined by the Coop 2022 Report.
At the same time, after the energy tsunami that fell (including on large retailers), energy costs that in 2019 were worth 1.7% of turnover based on energy futures will multiply at least three times, reaching an incidence of 4.7% and 5.2% in 2023. This dramatic increase in costs is all the more worrying if we consider that food retail is a structurally low-profit sector where small variations in margins can seriously compromise the stability of the income statements.
Suffice it to recall here that (Mediobanca data) the average added value retained by large-scale distribution companies in 2021 was 14.7%, the EBITDA of 5.3% and the EBIT of 2.6%. Similarly, for every 100 euros spent by the consumer, the net profit for retailers was just over 1.5 euros. For the rest, although 2022 records a slight return to surface expansion for large-scale distribution, mostly to the detriment of proximity points of sale, it is the discounter that once again records the greatest growth while the decline in the hypermarket format continues. . And e-grocery, which seems to have lost that propulsive thrust, moreover drugged by the lockdown, remains at very low levels, especially when compared to the rest of Europe; in 2021 it stands at 2.9% with forecasts for 2030 that do not exceed 6% against a very different dynamism in the home of the British (from 12% to 19%) or the French (from 8.6% to 16% ).