Def, Istat: “Risks on growth already in 2023”

Unknown US economy and euro appreciation, impact 0.2 points this year and 0.5 in 2024

There is “a high level of uncertainty regarding the evolution of some international factors, which could significantly change the framework already outlined for the current year. The risks identified in the Def are, moreover, mainly oriented downwards, as confirmed by the main national and international analysts “. Thus Giovanni Savio Director of the Central Directorate for National Accounts of Istat in a hearing on the Def before the joint Budget commissions of the Chamber and Senate.

“They are primarily related to the war in Ukraine and the consequent geopolitical tensions, which can compromise the process of reducing inflation, generating a new upward push in the prices of energy products and raw materials. Furthermore, the price of oil could also increase as a result of restrictions in the supply policies implemented by the main exporting countries. World economic growth could turn out to be lower than expected, also due to a worsening of financial market conditions: the prolongation of the phase of monetary restriction would aggravate the recent turbulence, which saw the bankruptcy of some banks and the decline in stocks”, he adds “An important unknown factor comes from the performance of the American economy”.

In particular, he states, “the occurrence of a slowdown in the US economy starting from the next few months – with a probable further contraction in world trade – and a parallel appreciation of the euro – induced by a reduction in US official interest rates and by an invariance in those of the European Central Bank compared to the baseline scenario – would involve a significant impact on GDP, equal to almost 2 tenths of a point in 2023 and 5 tenths in 2024“.

As repeatedly mentioned, “the evolution of underlying public finance trendsand the effort to plan policies for the future connected to the increase in the pressure of demographic scenarios on the health, welfare and social security system, will be inevitably linked also to the implementation of the investment and reform program envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr) and to the increase in the growth potential of the economy”, reads the speech.

they remain”large margins of uncertainty related to the evolution of war scenarios and the geopolitical context, to the risk of new inflationary pressures linked to the prices of energy raw materials, to the emergence of localized crises in the banking system. This strong uncertainty about the outlook for the economy also extends to assessments of the prospective trends in public finances”.

“It worries – Savio then underlines – the imbalance between deaths and births in Italy which is not compensated” by the foreign component.