Elections 2022, first uphill challenge for Meloni: the economy

The new government starts from the expensive bills, the budget law and the changes to the NRP

Defuse the rush of prices and bills, supporting businesses and families but without resorting to a budget shift. Write the next budget law in time to avoid interim exercise. Negotiate with Brussels the spaces that exist to review the priorities of the NRP. Only by proceeding by titles, it is evident how the first uphill challenge for Giorgia Meloni and for the next FdI-led government either the economy.

Times are tight and the first answers will arrive in the composition of the executive with respect to the expectations and doubts of the markets. The first reaction, with the polls just closed, rewards the prospect of stability, because the majority is sufficiently large in the two branches of Parliament and because the result of the League, the force that could potentially bring an element of instability, is sufficiently far from that of FdI. Now, however, the judgment will be calibrated on the facts, day after day. The team that will accompany Giorgia Meloni on her way to Palazzo Chigi will have its weight, especially in terms of credibility and reliability on an international level. For this reason, the choice of key ministers – economy, home, defense, foreign – appears even more sensitive at this stage.

To address the difficult context that is emerging, “the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine for the euro area have continued to be felt and the prospects are darker“summarized the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde, above all reliability and skills are needed. And also a solid bank from the Draghi government. It is no coincidence that Guido Crosetto, one of the founders of Fdi and a much-listened advisor to Meloni, has begun to frame the first problem on the road to the next government. “As a technician, I remember that the budget law must be sent to Brussels on 16 October. So the new government would have one day to do it. For this reason I believe that we should work on an dialogue between the old government and the new elected representatives, working together “.

Working with four hands means above all respecting the macroeconomic framework of update note to Def, the framework document for the budget law, which the government is about to close without obviously indicating the programmatic objectives. It means, translated into practical terms, to move with caution and to postpone those to a later date flag measures which generally new governments tend to approve in the first hundred days of life. Starting from the 30 billion gap demanded in a loud voice by Salvini until the last useful moment of the electoral campaign. It will be necessary to spend what it takes, and it will not be a little, to ease the consequences of the grip of inflation, but do it by finding the resources in the folds of the budget, for example by cutting unproductive spending, if you want to avoid doing it in deficit by putting on alarm Brussels and investors.

For the revision of the objectives of the NRP, which is only possible on some chapters and in agreement with the European Union, it will take time. And making your majority understand that it takes time is never easy for those who settle in Palazzo Chigi supported by high expectations and a broad consensus. (from Fabio Insenga)