Elections 2022, Follini: “Meloni more sober than his allies, but the road is uphill”

Marco Follini’s point of view for Adnkronos

“In Giorgia Meloni’s camp, to which many predict an almost certain electoral victory, one imagines there has been a mixed feeling in recent days, made up of euphoria and concern. And if it is legitimate to give advice, without too much malice, perhaps it would be the case that worry, not euphoria, was the keynote.

All the experience of these years in fact warns the winners about the precariousness of their victories. It has already happened to Renzi, the grillini and Salvini to celebrate generous numbers, and to see them vanish before their time under the effect of disappointments and discontent that are too precocious. The fact is that there is a transversal difficulty in keeping pace with expectations, not to mention the even faster pace of promises sown here and there. To delude oneself not to take this risk would be a dangerous lightness, whatever the numbers that the voters will hand us over.

In the case of Giorgia Meloni (if it is up to her) perhaps one more difficulty is announced. Which is almost enclosed in her characteristics and in her path in recent times. In fact, she is young, she is a woman, she is typically an outsider, she comes from a season of opposition. She breaks the mold, she announces a change of pace. In short, her novelty rate appears higher than average, up to the point of configuring the request for a real mandate towards her. Situation that can generate unprecedented sympathies but also expectations to which it is then even more difficult to correspond.

The fact is that the right, even in the Melonian version, likes to act as a factor of rupture. His election promises are all too generous (even with themselves at times, as is well known). His patience with him does not seem to be the greatest virtue he has. And his institutional spirit still remains to be tested. All things that do not announce the apocalypse, but perhaps configure some more risk for the country system and also for those who will be called to lead it.

So now Europe is announced that ‘the free ride’ is over, taxpayers are promised that taxes will decrease visibly, corporations are reassured that they will not have to liberalize that much, they swear that landings will end as per enchantment. And so on and promising. All things in which the other center-right shareholders, Salvini and Berlusconi, tend to exaggerate much more than her. But they will end up affecting her more than she likes to believe.

Meloni might object that so far she has been more sober and more attentive than her allies. And in fact, you took stock of Ukraine, a rather thorny issue in those parts as well. You have opposed the budget shift, avoiding making more debt. She has even let out, if not really sympathy, at least a certain respect for Draghi and her fatigue, despite having been the only opposition force in this final term. Positions for which she deserves an ounce of appreciation even from those who will never vote for her.

And yet, in the aftermath of the vote (if she wins), all these difficulties together will ensure that Meloni finally finds herself at a crossroads. In fact, one of the two. Or you will realize that the constraints (European, budget, system) force you to put aside many of the arguments of your own election campaign. And in that case the voters won’t be happy with her. Or she will keep faith with the slogans of these days, indulging in sovereignty, paying duty to her most restless allies, pampering the most barricaded electorate and perhaps trying to make national law prevail over European law (the real knot of the dispute) . And then you will find yourself at a disadvantage in the places where the fate of our country is largely decided.

In short, it is very likely that in the aftermath of the vote Meloni, if she wins, will find herself having to decide whether to take her electorate head on or take the reality principle head on. Either way, her road will be uphill, and the climb will be quite steep and slippery. ”

(from Marco Follini)