Elections 2022, GDP and employment: starting from the Draghi government legacy

The above-expected growth and the dynamics of the labor market will help the next premier

When the numbers go all, or almost all, in one direction, you get out of the terrain of conjecture and coincidences. The GDP that grows above expectations, as well as the employment data, begin to outline what it is more clearly the legacy left by the Draghi government. Not only. Looking at the comparison with the rest of Europe, the elements for evaluating the extent of the results of Italian economic policy in the last 18 months increase.

The electoral campaign ahead of the September 25 elections has just begun but is beginning to take shape with greater precision the macroeconomic framework in which the next government will be born. If, on the one hand, it will have to continue to cope with the effects of high inflation and contain the reduction in purchasing power due to the price rush, on the other hand it will be able to count on growth that has not lost momentum after Covid and on a labor market that has regained a positive dynamic.

There are two factors in particular that will allow those who will be at Palazzo Chigi to work with relative optimism. The Italian growth, in the first two quarters of the year, was higher than that of the Euro Area. In particular, in the second quarter the GDP recorded an increase of 1% in economic terms and of 4.6% in terms of trend. In June 2022, after the decline recorded in May, the number of employees increased again due to the growth of permanent employees, again exceeding 23 million. Compared to June 2021, the increase of over 400 thousand employees is determined by employees who, in June 2022, amounted to 18 million 100 thousand, the highest value since 1977, the first year of the historical series. The employment rate rises to 60.1% (a record since 1977), the unemployment rate is stable at 8.1% and the inactivity rate drops to 34.5%.

“The positive employment figure crowns the positive one of quarterly GDP growth, industrial turnover and inflation which has remained high but stable. It also strengthens the estimate of the International Monetary Fund, which presages an Italy that is growing against the current to most of the world’s economies “, sums up Lucio Poma, Nomisma’s chief economist.

Along the same lines, the Confcommercio analysis, which highlights how “the performance of the Italian system is confirmed well above expectations, at least this was the case until yesterday” and that “the growth in employment in June confirms the liveliness of the GDP of second quarter of the year “. However, the research office notes, “independent employment remains weak (-27 thousand units on May) and, more generally, the prospective fragility of the international scenario remains, which will be reflected in a sharp slowdown in economic activity and consumption. in the second half of the year “.

The numbers are good and the context, despite the external difficulties, is substantially favorable. And whoever is at Palazzo Chigi will have the responsibility not to waste what has been done.

(from Fabio Insenga)