EU: 2023-24 estimates for Italy, item by item

Italy’s GDP estimates are up, in 2023 it will grow at +1.2%

The EU sees moderately ‘pink’ on the Italian economy (but also on the European one) and raises the estimates of growth in Italy in the two-year period 2023-24. In the new spring forecast released today, the Commission expects our economy to grow by 1.2% this year, an improvement of 0.4 points on the +0.8% estimated in winter and +1.1% in 2024 (+0.1 point on the previous assessment). These are “encouraging” figures, European Commissioner for the Economy Paolo Gentiloni explained at a press conference that he also placed the emphasis on improving public finances.

In fact, in 2023 the EU estimates a drop of 4 points in debt to GDP ratio of our country, which from 144.4% in 2022 (in any case more than 10 points lower than the ‘pandemic’ record of 2020) this year would drop – according to new estimates by the European Commission – to 140.4%. Minimal improvement instead in 2024, with a debt at 140.3%. On the deficit front, however, this year it is estimated at 4.5% of GDP (it was 8% in 2022) with an improvement in 2024 to 3.7%.

As for theinflation the new spring forecasts of the European Commission see the growth of prices for Italy this year at a level of 6.1%, an improvement compared to +8.7% in 2022, but still one of the data highest among the large economies of the Eurozone. For 2024, on the other hand, a drop to 2.9% is expected, a level in any case higher than that of the main EU economies.

On the front unemployment the Commission expects a slight but progressive decline: from 9.5% in 2021 to 8.1% in 2022, this year it should fall to 7.8% and then a marginal adjustment to 7.7% in 2024 ( but the average for the period 2014-18 was 11.7%). A ‘cautious’ trend also for employment growth which, after +1.7% last year, should increase by 0.5% in 2023 and then by a slight +0.1% next year.

Sharp slowdown instead for the investmentsafter the post-pandemic +18.6 in 2021 last year they increased by 9.4%: but this year – according to Brussels – we should not go beyond +2.6% and then slow down again to +1, 4% in 2024. Finally the current account balance after -1.3% in 2022, this year it would settle at parity and then grow by 1.3% in 2024.