Fitch: BBB rating with stable outlook for Italy, growth for 2023 at -0.4%


For the rating agency, the outlook on creditworthiness remains stable. Fitch expects “a sharp deceleration” in Italy’s economic growth starting in the fourth quarter due to the energy shock. A deficit/GDP ratio is forecast for 2023 at 4.9%, followed by 4.3% the following year, against 4.5% and 3.7% forecast by the government, “mainly due to differences in the macroeconomic scenario”

Fitch Ratings confirms the ‘BBB’ rating on Italy. This can be read in a note from the rating agency, which also keeps the outlook, the prospects on creditworthiness, “stable”. Growth, on the other hand, according to the agency, would suffer a sharp slowdown in 2023 to -0.4%, and a deficit/GDP ratio of 4.9% during the next year.

Italy growth -0.4% for 2023

Fitch expects “a sharp deceleration” in Italy’s economic growth starting from the fourth quarter due to the energy shock, which brings the estimate for 2023 to -0.4% followed by a recovery to 2.2% in 2024. The the figure for 2023 is better than the -0.7% expected in October, but far from the +0.6% indicated by the Nadef.

Italy deficit at 4.9% in 2023, debt below 150%

Fitch also forecasts a deficit/GDP ratio for 2023 at 4.9%, followed by 4.3% the following year, against 4.5% and 3.7% forecast by the government, “mainly due to differences in the macroeconomic scenario”. The agency identifies a “slippage of fiscal consolidation” with debt which, falling below 150% of GDP this year, “could stabilize in the 145-150% range” in the medium term against a drop to 141% by 2025 expected by the executive. An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio with spending pressures, or a more severe macroeconomic shock could lead to a downgrade in the rating, while a medium-term budgetary consolidation effort, or reforms capable of boosting potential growth, would a positive factor for creditworthiness.



Source-tg24.sky.it