G7, the Italian dossier brought to the USA: Ukraine priority on the agenda

The Italian presidency of the G7 has in fact already begun and Washington has made it known that it will be ”fundamental” to keep Ukraine ”among the priorities of the agenda”. Francesco Verderami reminds us of this in an article in Corriere della Sera, where he explains that ”a delegation from the Farnesina flew to the United States to illustrate the guidelines of the dossier”. Regarding the Ukrainian crisis in the USA, they are convinced, writes Verderami, that there is no room for diplomatic negotiations, because Russia will want to continue the war effort “at least for next year”, also aiming for an outcome of the vote in the USA that “sees more isolationist tendencies prevail”. And since «Putin is convinced that he will survive us», in the coming months it will be necessary to «intensify military assistance» in favor of Ukraine. For this reason, the G7, according to Washington, will be “essential” to mobilize the maximum political and financial commitment, useful for “exerting pressure” on Moscow.

”The American concerns that emerged during the meetings, both on internal problems and on tensions in Europe, were the backdrop to the objectives highlighted”, writes Verderami, underlining the need to ”reassure the Ukrainian population, whose «resilience begins to show signs of fatigue.” But there is also the geo-political front to manage, after the outbreak of the war in the Middle East”. In this sense, he adds, the State Department reiterated that the conflict between Israel and Hamas “cannot change attitudes” towards Kiev, because the two crises are “of the nature of a transformative process of its institutions and its economy”. . The reconstruction plan for Ukraine fits into this context, which is at the center of the agenda of the Italian presidency of the G7: a mission that the government intends to project into 2025, with the organization of the Ukraine recovery conference in Rome. Even on this point, however, there is no shortage of difficulties. The United States is asking Ukrainians for reforms in the fight against “endemic” internal corruption and in the establishment of mechanisms that prevent the formation of new oligarchies. But the Kiev authorities “show resistance” to the timing that was proposed to them and ask to be able to dilute it.

Washington’s expectation is that the reconstruction plan will then pass even more stringently through the Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Platform, established a year ago with the aim of directing resources: in this Platform the centrality of the countries of the G7. And it is clear why “duplications” must be avoided. Especially if you intend to mobilize private investments in strategic sectors. In the defense sector, which could potentially transform Kiev into an armaments supplier for Moscow’s traditional partners, displacing Russian competition. And in that of Energy, in view of the “tripling” of Ukraine’s nuclear production by 2050. It is a point on the agenda that the USA looks upon favorably, hoping for collaboration between Italian and American companies.

Private funds will be decisive for Ukraine’s future. To understand this, just note the “concern” expressed to the Italian mission by representatives of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank: for 2024 alone there is a gap of “at least 20 billion dollars” between the available resources and Kiev’s needs . The report delivered to the government by the diplomatic delegation crudely explains how the coming year “will be crucial” for the fate of the conflict, Ukrainian expectations and Western public opinions. The USA has “strong expectations” towards Rome.