The International Monetary Fund improves our country’s GDP estimates for 2023 and 2024 to 1.1%. But he warns: there will be a greater boost to the economy only with the effective implementation of the National Recovery Plan. There are many potential risks: from inflation to high debt, for which a credible plan is being suggested to reduce it in the short term
Italy’s economic growth is hand in glove with the implementation of the National Recovery Plan. Especially from 2025 onwards, when our country will be called upon to spend the largest portions of European funding. This is recalled by the International Monetary Fund, which raises its estimates of our Gross Domestic Product for this year and next from 0.7 to 1.1 per cent, and foresees an acceleration in two years thanks to the boost from the Pnrr.
Clouds on the horizon
However, there are risks, underlines the Washington Institute, which cites among the variables not only global financial and political tensions, but the Recovery Plan itself, because delays in receiving installments from Brussels or a stalemate in its implementation would slow down the our economy. A complete and timely use of resources, on the other hand, would give us more pace, more energy security and would allow us to better combat climate change.
Inflation still high long
Among the possible clouds on the horizon, the IMF also mentions inflation, expected to fall to 2 percent in 2026 alone, and a further tightening of rates by the European Central Bank, which by increasing the cost of money could make it more onerous for our country to finance itself on the markets. A circumstance that would weigh even more on our already high public debt.
Heavy debt, reduction needed
On this front, experts advise Rome on a credible plan to reduce the ballast which is worth over 140 per cent of GDP, with a clear fiscal framework and caution in spending, suggesting – for example – action on pensions by abolishing early exits.