The update of the estimate of real monthly GDP for September indicates a slight cyclical increase in gross domestic product (0.1%), in line with the August data and such as to determine a positive variation also on a trend basis (0.1% , from -0.2% in August). Compared to the previous estimate, the economic trend has been revised marginally upwards. In the September update, the forecast is positively influenced by the trend of some economic indicators. In addition to the industrial production data relating to August, which recorded an increase on a monthly basis (0.2% m/m), the trend of the high-frequency quantitative indicators relating to September had an impact.
This was revealed by the analysis developed for Adnkronos by the Tor Vergata Foundation, directed by Beniamino Quintieri, through its Faini Observatory, created in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, which processes and comments – every month – on the results of the real GDP for a single month.
In September, the increase in demand for gas for industrial use (3.6% m/m) was accompanied by a new increase in electricity production (0.4% m/m) and the strengthening of growth in electricity consumption of energy-intensive companies. There is also an increase in motorway freight traffic and a marked acceleration in car registrations.
On the other hand, the use of information linked to qualitative surveys tends to slow down the upward revision, as the latter continue to provide signs of a slowdown. In fact, in September, the deterioration in business confidence continued, common to all sectors but particularly significant for industry. In this context, only the manufacturing PMI index bucked the trend and, although remaining below the expansion threshold, recorded a new improvement (46.8, from 45.4 in August); the gradual recovery of production and the drop in raw material prices contribute to the recovery.
Having passed the low point in June, it is realistic to expect the index’s gradual return towards expansion territory to continue in the months ahead. At the same time, after the loss of tone in the summer months, the services sector stabilized in September: the related PMI index stood at 49.9 (from 49.8 in August); on the other hand, the climate of confidence in market services and retail trade worsens. Even in a context of deceleration in inflation, family expectations are affected by future uncertainty: in September, in fact, the climate of confidence declines for the third consecutive month, accompanied by the decline in retail sales in August.