** GDP: Upb raises 2022 estimate to 3.2% and 2023 size to 0.9% **

” In light of the changes that have taken place in recent months ”, theUpb changes its predictions ontrend of the Italian economy in the two-year period 2022-23. The estimates relating to 2022
they improve by three tenthsfrom 2.9% processed last April to 3.2%, ” by virtue of the favorable trends in the first half, which benefited from an expansionary budget policy ”. This is what is stated in the note on the economic situation of August of the Parliamentary Budget Office. The forecast on the 2023instead, ” undergoes a cut by 1.2 percentage points compared to spring estimates e slips to the
0.9%. The negative revision is primarily due to the protracted conflict in Ukraine, which translates into a deterioration in foreign demand and a greater persistence of inflation.

The UPB recalls that “ after the setback of the first quarter, the Italian economy quickly resumed growth in the spring, also thanks to the gradual elimination of restrictions to combat the pandemic ”. Istat last week, releasing preliminary data on GDP, outlined ” a 1% increase in economic activity in the second quarterattributable to the dynamics of all the main production sectors, with the exception of agriculture ”.

On the front of the work the Parliamentary Budget Office notes that ” theemployment continued to expandwage pressures remain moderate, but job vacancies are increasing”. Turning toinflationthe Upb reminds that ” reached i maximum values ​​of the last three decades, the underlying component is also increasing and household confidence is worsening. On the basis of the prospective economic indicators, theeconomic activity would weaken in the second half of the year”.

The macroeconomic framework of the Italian economy, writes the UPB, ” is surrounded by a ‘extremely high uncertainty, in the face of the possible occurrence of various adverse scenarios, especially on commodity markets and world trade ”. The main riskexplains the Office, ” is represented by geopolitical tensions with Russia, in particular for the gas supplies natural to Europe, whose eventual arrest would have significant repercussions in 2023”.