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The elections that have just been held in Germany in the states of Bavaria and Hesse are very bitter elections for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In fact, the Social Christians of the CDU/CSU triumphed, with the definitive clearance of the AfD, which achieved important results in both regions. The vote also marks an important stage in view of the 2025 vote: current projections give Angela Merkel’s former party a clear advantage but what worries the SPD is above all the result of the liberals, government allies in the “traffic light coalition”. The FDP, in fact, is on the threshold of defeat in Hesse, around 5%, while it is already definitively out of the picture in Bavaria, where it obtained 3%. Possible separations of the yellow component in the government team are possible at this point: the impression is that the next few months do not look at all simple for the Berlin government.
The elections in Bavaria
The result that emerges from Munich once again sees Markus Söder’s CSU emerge preponderantly: the current president of Bavaria, with national ambitions in 2025, is reconfirmed with 37% of the votes, down 0.2 points compared to five years ago but enough to continue to govern together with the Freie Wahler, the so-called “Free Voters”, a local right-wing populist party which obtained 14%. Much more significant, however, is the result achieved by Alternative für Deutschland, which gained almost 5 percentage points compared to 2018, reaching a significant 15%, which earned it third place. A customs clearance that German politics will have to take into account, which until now had always placed them in the poorest regions of the East: a similar result in the richest and most industrialized region of the country remains a wake-up call for all the other parties. The Greens reach second place, with 16%, reaching a symbolic first place among the progressive forces, given the single-digit result of the SPD, stuck at 8.5%.
The elections in Hesse
Even in Hesse it is the Social Christians who clearly win the local elections: President Boris Rhein’s formation obtains 35.5% of the vote, a result that marks a clear +8.5% compared to five years ago. In second place, at 16.7%, Afd, which trails the SPD by just over one percentage point, stops at 15.4%, the same result as that of the Greens, in government in this region. An encore for the green-black alliance is therefore possible. For the AfD, this electoral result appears to be the best in their history in a Land of the former West Germany: in no other region until now had they managed to obtain between 21 and 26 deputies. As for the other political forces present in the Wiesbaden Parliament, the CDU is expected to obtain between 44 and 52 seats, the SPD from 20 to 23 and the Greens from 19 to 23. The leader of the Social Democrats in Hesse, the German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser called her party’s result in today’s elections “very disappointing”.
In view of the 2025 policies
These results therefore confirm the polls of the day before and the analyzes that saw Scholz suffering on some hot topics, such as the slowdown of the economy, high inflation, the increase in energy costs, the immigration issue and internal disputes on many dossier, now that the glue of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has loosened. For the moment neither of the two leaders of the CDU/CSU seems to want to ally themselves with the AfD, but their campaign against migrants certainly seems to have taken hold on a conservative electorate, yes, but not extreme.