India has overtaken China as the country with the most inhabitants in the world. The comparison

India has overtaken China. It is now the country with the most inhabitants in the world. With a record population that could mean economic and consumption growth as well as a greater international role. Among the risks to be avoided are greater poverty and unemployment

World population, 8 billion on earth

An overtaking which represents problematic challenges for Beijing and promising possibilities for Delhi. In 1980 Deng Xiaoping passed severe sanctions to limit the Chinese family unit to one child. Of course it worked too well. In 2015, Xi Jinping then increased the number of children granted to two, then to three, to finally lift the sanctions, making divorce more difficult

China’s population grows at slowest pace ever

The unstoppable demographic decline, according to the World Economic Forum, will lead to the loss of 700 million workers (23%) by 2050. Thus it will be really difficult to achieve the economic objectives, weighed down by the current 203 million Chinese over-65s, 14.3% of the population. India has half, 103 million, 6.8

According to estimates, in 2100 (when Indians may be twice as many as Chinese) pensions in China will cost 20% of GDP, in India only 4%. Fewer young and older means more hospital and pension costs. And a shrinking workforce also triggers rising labor costs

Economic growth in China is at 4%, while India has repeatedly exceeded 6%, displacing the United Kingdom as the fifth world GDP, following behind Germany and Japan. According to the Indian State Bank, in six years India will be the world’s third largest economy

Naturally, to achieve this goal it will have to create more jobs, including by making more mothers and daughters who are kept at home by a male-dominated culture work. And above all, it will have to reverse a 10-year employment stagnation. In 2017, there were 413 million employed, in 2019 they had dropped to 406 million, in 2022 they had dropped to 402 million

The job market is at a standstillweak investments not only due to the pandemic slowdown, but also due to the damage of demonetization in 2016 and a business climate complicated by protectionist policies that are not fluid enough for foreign investments

To win this challenge India could invest even more in infrastructure, renew business rules suffocated by bureaucracy and rework a national plan to give life to an industrial development that focuses more on exports. In short, an ongoing growth that the Indian government cannot let slip