Also the prices of food goods, for home and personal care, the so-called shopping cart, confirm a downward curve in December on a trend basis from +12.7% to +12.6%, as also those of with a high frequency of purchases (from +8.8% in November to +8.5%)
Even in Italy the downward curve of inflation seems to have begun. According to preliminary estimates for the month of December 2022 released by Istat, the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobacco, increases by 0.3% on a monthly basis (+0.5 % in November) and 11.6% on an annual basis (from +11.8% in the previous month). “In 2022 consumer prices -observes Istat- recorded an annual average growth of +8.1%, marking the largest increase since 1985 (when it was at +9.2%). Inflation acquired for 2023 is equal to +5.1%, much larger than that observed for 2022, when it was equal to +1.8%”.
Slowdown on a trend basis due to the prices of energy goods
The slowdown in inflation on a trend basis is mainly due to the prices of energy goods (which, while maintaining very sustained growth, pass from +67.6% in November to +64.7%), in particular of the unregulated component (from +69.9% to +63.3%) and to the prices of unprocessed food goods (from +11.4% to +9.5%) and services relating to transport (from +6.8% to +6.0%); on the other hand, support for the inflation trend derives from the acceleration in the prices of regulated energy (from +57.9% to +70.3%), those of processed food goods (from +14.3% to +14 .9%), those of recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +5.5% to +6.2%) and services relating to communications (from +0.2% to +0.7 %). In December, “core inflation”, excluding energy and fresh food, accelerated from +5.6% to +5.8%, while that excluding energy alone rose from +6.1% to +6.2%.
Conjunctural increases always linked to energy
The cyclical increase in the general index is mostly due – underlines ISTAT – to the growth in the prices of regulated energy (+7.9%), of recreational, cultural and personal care services (+1 .4% due to seasonal factors), Services related to transport (+1.1% also due to seasonal factors), Processed food goods (+0.8%) and Other goods (+0. 6%); the effects of these increases were only partially offset by the decrease in the prices of unregulated energy (-3.9%) and unprocessed food (-0.6%). Based on preliminary estimates, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increases by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 12.3% on an annual basis (from +12.6% in November). The average annual change in 2022 is +8.7% (+1.9% in 2021).
Shopping cart price increases are also declining
The prices of food, home and personal care products slow down on a trend basis from +12.7% to +12.6%, as do those of frequently purchased products (from +8.8% of November at +8.5%)”. This was stated by Istat, signaling the slight slowdown in basic necessities which, however, remain at record levels not seen since 1983.