Inflation Italy 2022, Mef: “Braking in the second half of the year”

GDP towards slightly positive quarterly growth

“Linflation is expected to slow down in the second half of the year while remaining high compared to previous years and vulnerable to new increases in energy prices. “This is what the Ministry of Economy writes in its updates on the activity of issuing public debt, the macroeconomic and public finance framework.

More recently, the inflationary impulse deriving from the energy sector has been added to therising food commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The spread of inflation to other product sectors, notes the Mef, “also led to a growth in core inflation (net of energy and fresh food) which in May reached 3.2% y / y. this context, wage growth remained moderate (0.2% qoq and 1.7% y / y in the first quarter). Looking ahead, it is reasonable to imagine that if the stabilization or downward trend in energy prices continues, overall inflation will slow down in the second half of the year “.

On the other hand, the underlying component, emphasizes the Mef, “could remain relatively high also because it is wage growth is expected to start to accelerate. In fact, Istat has published an inflation forecast net of imported energy of 4.7% for 2022, which will be the starting point for the adjustments envisaged by the wage contracts in force or by those in the process of being defined. The Government, already last year, responded to the sudden increase in the prices of energy products with measures to contain the costs of gas and electricity for users. Part of the measures contributed directly to containing price dynamics. The surge in energy prices was reflected in the worsening of the trade balance and the current account. After years of high surpluses, in recent months the current account balance has instead gone into deficit although the performance of exports has remained very good, as has that of the non-energy balance. In 2021, Italy overtook France for the first time in terms of exports of goods (over 500 billion), becoming the third largest exporter of the EU after Germany and the Netherlands “.


“In spite of an extremely challenging economic and geopolitical context, the Italian economy has regained momentum after a slow start in January. The robust increase in GDP forecast for the second quarter should bring the growth acquired in the second quarter in line, if not above the average annual forecast of the Def (3.1%).

The second half of the year is more challengingalso due to the rise in interest rates and the spread, but quarterly GDP growth should remain slightly positive. “This is what the Ministry of Economy writes in its updates on public debt issuance activity, the macroeconomic framework and public finance.