“I’m not a pessimist but a realist,” says the analyst who predicted the Hamas attack. To free the hostages, “massive pressure on Qatar” is needed, because “Qatar is Hamas”. And Netanyahu was supposed to resign yesterday.
Israel will not be able to eliminate all the armed men of Hamas, in the future there will be a sort of permanent war between Israel and the north of Gaza, while in the south of the Strip there will be hundreds of thousands of refugeesthe. “I’m not a pessimist, I’m just a realist.” The Israeli analyst paints this picture Yigal Carmon, answering questions from Adnkronos on what the future of Gaza could be.
Founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (Memri), which monitors the media in the Arab world and in Iran, Carmon was part of Israeli military intelligence and was an advisor on counterterrorism to prime ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin. But above all, at the end of August, he was the only one to warn against the danger of an attack on Israel between September and October.
“Hamas has built an army of 30-40 thousand men with money received from Qatar, one and a half billion dollars sent over the last ten years with Israel’s permission. Will the Israeli army be able to kill them all? Of course not,
It is not possible. You can stop Hamas from ruling the population, that’s another thing, but you can’t kill them all. So what could be the end of the war? It will be when the leaders are killed. I guess Israel will then say it did her job,” Carmon reasons.
Mahmoud Abbas will not go to the Strip, if he does he will be killed
As for who will govern Gaza in the future, the analyst offers no immediate solutions. “It is absolutely illusory to think – he underlines – that the leader of the Palestinian National Authority Mahmoud Abbas could go to Gaza, he will never go and if he does he will be killed. Carmon doesn’t even think that the UN can take on the burden of leading the Strip, nor that she will want to do so, not even temporarily Egypt, “they are certainly not crazy”.
“There will not be a Gaza without Hamas – he states – there will be 20-30 thousand Hamas fighters left, they will stay and wage a new war, it will be the same people with a new leadership. I am not a pessimist but a realist. In Gaza City there will be a constant war zone in the next ten years, ten years is an optimistic figure.
In the south of the Strip, it will happen as in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, there will be tens of thousands of refugees for decades. Israel will have to help them”. And even the Israeli refugees who lived on the border with Gaza “will not return to their homes, it will not be safe”.
Carmon recalls that Hamas had never hidden its intentions, everyone in the Muslim world knew it. But the analyst is also keen to underline that the Israeli Arabs have demonstrated their “moral fibre”: none of them celebrated the October 7 massacre, “they have shown that they are different”. And even among them there are people kidnapped or killed by Hamas.
As for the hostages kidnapped by Hamas, the only way to free them is to exert “massive pressure on Qatar, really massive”, says Carmon, underlining that “Hamas is Qatar”.
Qatar, he explains, “supports Hamas but is not suicidal”, if Doha “thinks that the existence of the emirate is at stake, then it will force Hamas to free the hostages. And Hamas will do it, because Qatar is its lifeline If those of Hamas don’t do what Qatar says they will remain alone, no one in the world loves them.”
To save the hostages, however, it was necessary to act immediately, “offer all the terrorists in Israeli prisons in exchange for their release. Our stupid government, I authorize writing stupid, did not do it. They should have done it on the first day, there are children, babies, must be released. We owe it to the families”, insists Carmon
Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu “should have resigned yesterday, he can do it today”. When questioned about “Bibi’s” political fate, Carmon has no hesitation, stating that the prime minister should resign immediately even if there is a war going on. And he should do it because he has not backed down on the “political catastrophe” towards Qatar, which he allowed to finance Hamas. “Every killer, tunnel, Hamas bullet is Qatar’s money,” he specified.