Lombardy’s resilience to the demographic crisis

Lombardy will resist depopulation better, limiting the decline in residents to 8%, against -20% in Italy

According to the Tagliacarne Study Center, in the next 50 years Lombardy will become the third youngest region in the country, gaining four places compared to today. Although increasing, the average age of the Lombard population will still be below the Italian average, going from the current 45.6 years (against the Italian average of 45.9) to 49.1 in 2070 (against the Italian average of 50.6) . The region will resist depopulation even better, limiting the decline in residents to 8%, against -20% in Italy.

If today the resident population in the South is close to 20 million inhabitants, in 2070 it will drop to around 13.5 million people. This means that only 28.4% of the population will reside in the South (compared to the current 33.7%) and that 55% of the country’s population loss between 2021 and 2070 will be attributable to the South.

Lombardy will also suffer one depopulationbut rather contained. The median scenario highlights a decrease in the resident population of almost 20% at a national level, while in Lombardy it is limited to a decrease of 8%. It is therefore characterized as one of the best performing regions of the country, preceded only by the two autonomous provinces of Bolzano and Trento and by Emilia-Romagna with an estimated resident population value that will touch 9.2 million inhabitants at the end of 2070.

In fact, the migratory balance will remain in positive territory for the entire 2021-2070 period with a downsizing in the last decade due to a significant drop in internal flows while foreign ones will be roughly constant over time. The natural component, on the other hand, will see an increase in mortality up to 2060, which will be followed by a period of contraction with a ratio of deaths and births always favorable to the former with a value between 50% and 100%.

If today the average age of the region and that of the country are substantially identical (45.6 years against 45.9), at the end of 2070 this difference will go as far as exceeding 1.5 years with Lombardy (49.1 years) which will be the third youngest region in the country after the two autonomous provinces, compared to the current seventh place. In the current decade the region will not be affected by the demographic decline, but will see a increased attractiveness of the vast area made up of the metropolitan city and the province of Monza and Brianza compared to the rest of the region. In other words, if today 41.2% of Lombards live in this area, this rate will rise to 41.8% between now and 2030. And in particular the metropolitan city will rise from 32.5% to 33.0%.