Maneuver, Giorgetti: economy is holding but downside risks

For the Minister of Economy, international tensions and high interest rates weigh heavily. Possible revision of the 2023 GDP. Prudent budget law but in aid of families and workers. For Healthcare, cutting waiting lists is a “priority”. “Answers” are promised regarding the pension cut. The Parliamentary Budget Office: temporary measures, the implementation of the Pnrr is essential

The economy is holding up, recession has so far been averted but growth this year could be lower than the 0.8 percent forecast by the government. Giancarlo Giorgetti believes that this difficult phase will not have repercussions on 2024, if not to a negligible extent.

GDP 2024, the government does not change the estimates

The Minister of Economy at a hearing in Parliament therefore holds firm to the forecast of a gross domestic product increasing by 1.2 percent next year. A performance higher than that expected by most national and foreign institutes and which would be achieved thanks to the boost given by the measure.

Risks to growth: wars and the cost of money

A budget law that is difficult to put down in black and white, admits the head of the Treasury, both due to discussions within the government and due to the tensions due to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. “There therefore remain many downside risks – explains Giorgetti – which hover over future prospects which are represented by increases in the price of oil and high international interest rates”.

Prudence and support

However, the best possible was done, the minister claims, defending the choices of the budget: from healthcare with an additional three billion, to the tightening of pensions, through interventions to protect families from inflation (seen in decline), with the extension of the cut in contributions for medium-low incomes, and the sustainability of public debt, which will decline slightly in the coming years. The number one of Via XX Settembre recalled the burden on the debt of the building bonuses, in particular the Superbonus, while on the cut to the pensions of many public employees which would start from 2024 he said: “We will give an answer on doctors’ pensions”.

Upb: temporary measures, fundamental Pnrr

In short, the line of prudence is confirmed, with the awareness that the maneuver is focused on the present. The latter is an aspect highlighted by the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) when – through the mouth of President Livia Cavallari – it highlights how many interventions are temporary and there is the risk of having to adjust the accounts in the future in less favorable conditions. Fundamental, underlines the independent control body, the Pnrr, which Palazzo Chigi wants to change and which, if fully implemented, would give a boost to GDP up to 2.6 percent in 2026.