Moscow aims to destabilize the Baltic countries. Medvedev: “There will 100% be a new war”
Vladimir Putin threatens the Baltic countries and NATO, Dmitry Medvedev promises a new war and predicts the dissolution of Ukraine. The messages arriving from Russia broaden the picture of tension beyond the war that has been ongoing with Ukraine for almost 2 years. The conflict is marked daily by raids by Moscow, which in the last few hours has bombed the city of Kharkiv. In the field, analysts and experts have been photographing a substantial stalemate for weeks, also thanks to the winter climate and ground conditions which hinder the movements of men and vehicles.
The situation appears consolidated along the eastern front, where there are marginal changes in positions along the contact line. The monitoring of the operations suggests a new Russian push, which could materialize in February, when the frozen ground will make travel less prohibitive.
From Moscow, Putin seeks to create scorched earth around Ukraine, thwarting the president’s diplomatic efforts Volodymyr Zelensky who in Davos, in the World Economic Forum, tried to bring Kiev back into the world spotlight. Russia hopes that the halt in American aid to Ukraine, with the $61 billion package blocked in Congress, will be prolonged and deprive the enemy of major support. Zelensky has strengthened ties in the past week with Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, which have stepped up efforts to support Kiev.
It is no coincidence that the Baltic countries ended up in Putin’s sights. The Kremlin aims to destabilize Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia with the aim of weakening NATO, according to the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which in recent days had already envisaged a new Russian offensive in Ukraine in the next weeks, almost 2 years after the start of the war.
”The escalation against the Baltic countries”, in Putin’s strategy, began with ”a significant increase in efforts that have been underway for some time by the Kremlin to weaken the Atlantic Alliance”, writes the ISW in its latest report. ”Russia is continuing to demonstrate that it is not interested in negotiating in good faith for Ukraine,” the analysis continues.
According to the ISW, ”Russia is preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground in southern and eastern Ukraine freezes”. In particular, Russia is reportedly preparing airborne assault units for landing in the Ukrainian rear. “Current events in the Baltics, including the expulsion of Russians from Latvia, affect the security of our country,” Putin said.
The Russia-against-all narrative is a constant and is also renewed by Dmitry Medvedev’s message, vice president of the National Security Council. “The existence of Ukraine is mortally dangerous for Ukrainians. And I’m not just talking about the state that currently exists. I’m talking about Ukraine absolutely. The presence of a state” formed from “historically Russian territories will be a constant reason for hostility. A new war is 100% probable. Ukraine’s entry into the European Union or this artificial nation’s entry into NATO will not avoid the conflict that could occur within 10-15 years. And it doesn’t matter how much Ukrainians wish death on the Russians now or how much hatred they feel for the Russian leadership. One day they will want to live in a great shared state and not fight and die.”