Political polls, 2022 elections: center-right ahead by 18 points

The latest photograph of the Demopolis Institute: the center-right driven by Giorgia Meloni would get 46.5% of the votes

A little more than two weeks before the political elections of 25 September, the center-right led by Giorgia Meloni would obtain 46.5% of the votes, with a possible fluctuation between 44% and 49%. Detached by almost 18 points is the center-left coalition, currently standing at 29%. The M5S, growing, would be positioned at 12.8%, the Terzo Polo di Calenda at 7%. IS the last photograph on the weight of parties taken by the Demopolis Institute, before the electoral blackout required by law. The Institute directed by Pietro Vento has created a simulation on the allocation of 400 seats in Montecitorio. The center-right coalition – according to Demopolis data – would obtain a large majority in the Chamber, winning 246 deputies (with a gap between 234 and 258).

The center-left would stop at just over 90 seats; 34 deputies would go to the 5 Star Movement, 18 to the Terzo Polo, 8 to Italexit (if the 3% threshold is reached), 2 to SVP. Analyzing the consent to the political forces 18 days after the vote, Fratelli d’Italia would be the first party with 25% (with a range between 22% and 28%): over 2 and a half points ahead of the Democratic Party of Letta, positioned at 22.4%. Salvini’s League would have 13.5%, Conte’s 5 Star Movement 12.8%. The Action-Italia Viva list is almost matched at 7% and Forza Italia at 6.9%; Sinistra-Verdi stood at 3.5%, Italexit at 3%. While the decisive days of the electoral campaign begin and over a fifth of voters still declare themselves undecided, for the moment they would have between 3 and 1.4 percent + Europe, Civic Commitment, We Moderates and Popular Union.

The photograph on the weight of the parties, taken for the Otto e Mezzo program, is obviously destined to change and evolve in the last 15 days preceding the election. “A little more than 2 weeks after the vote – explains the director of the Demopolis Institute Pietro Vento – the consensus still remains mobile: among those who imagine going to the polls, 67% already have a precise orientation; 12% expressed their intention to vote, admitting however that they could change their minds in the coming days. 21% of voters are still undecided on the choice to make ”. The turnout estimated today by Demopolis is 68%, down by 5 points: in fact 2.5 million less Italians would vote than in the 2018 Policies.