Political polls: center-right at 42%, center-left at 31%

The analysis on voting intentions carried out by Cise / Iccp: Fdi first party but the League does not take off, Pd at 21.4%. M5S grows and exceeds 16%

Center-right ahead and with a substantial detachment, Fratelli d’Italia first party, but with the League not taking off; the center left stopped at 31% with the Democratic Party struggling to 21.4%, the resumption of the M5S which exceeds 16%. This, in a nutshell, the analysis on voting intentions carried out by Cise / Iccp, published on the Luiss website. “The victory of the center-right once again does not appear in question – we read – even if with values ​​lower than those reported by the polling institutes in recent days: the center-right coalition in fact totals about 42% of voting intentions, against 31 % of the center left. The role of the first party of the Brothers of Italy is also confirmed, although in our data – points out the Italian Center for Electoral Studies – this party records a slightly lower performance than other polls in recent days; FdI is in fact given to the 23%, against 21.4% of the Democratic Party, which is in line with other polls “.

Going into the details of the two main coalitions, the slightly lower advantage of the center-right compared to other polls (which see gaps between 15 and 18 points) is also linked to the “particularly low” estimate of the League, which in our survey would fall below two figures (at 9.6%), while Forza Italia is given at 8%; Noi Moderati is also below 1% compared to higher estimates (around 2%) in published polls “.

“Within the center-left, the survey has a particularly positive estimate for the Green-Left alliance (5.9%), while Più Europa is given below the 3% threshold (2.3%) in in line with other surveys, as well as Civic Commitment (1.4%). Perhaps the most striking figure is that of the M5S, which our estimates see at 16.6%: this is not only higher than the average of the published polls more recently (around 12%), but also in the most optimistic polls (which give it a maximum of 14%). Finally, the estimate for Action-Italia Viva (5.3%) appears slightly lower than the estimates seen so far ( around 6 and 7%); Italexit is also confirmed above the threshold (3.6%) “.

According to the Cise / Iccp survey, “the structural advantage of the center-right is therefore confirmed, and the absence of real competitiveness of the center-left: data that do not really appear in question (the particularly low margin of victory we estimate – eleven points – not only in any case it appears comfortable, but represents a particularly low value, compared to the estimates of all the institutes) “.

For the Luiss Study Center, “Action-Italia Viva failed to take off: a party with a double-digit” third pole “ambition (with the not too hidden objective of going close to the 20% obtained in Rome, forgetting perhaps that Italy is not Rome) and that it has not yet managed to take off, remaining on the estimates seen for months “.

Another element remarked by Cise / Iccp is “the growth of the M5S. Presented by many as destined for extinction after the split of Di Maio and the subsequent fall of the Draghi government (at the time it was often estimated below 10%), the party led by Conte, on the other hand, shows a strong trend towards growth, confirmed by all the institutes (although so far not at the levels recorded by us) “.