Regionals 2023, how the parties went: who goes up and who goes down

In addition to the victory of the right, the trend of the main parties compared to the 2018 administrative elections: a surge in the Brothers of Italy, a decline in the League, the Pd is stable. Down the 5 stars. But if you look at the 2022 Policies…

The right wins, takes Lazio and confirms itself in Lombardy. The result is clear, the political meaning too: net success without appeal. Just as the defeat of the centre-left alignment (or alignments) is clear.

But if the general outcome of the competition is crystal clear, it is still interesting to observe how the individual parties have behaved in this electoral round. Which have grown compared to the previous Regionals and the political elections in September and which have decreased. And especially where.

An idea of ​​these trends is offered by the maps created by Sky Tg24 which photograph the results of the main political subjects on Monday 13 February in the individual municipalities and compare them with past electoral rounds.

The territories of the municipalities are colored in a progressively more intense blue the more the performance of the party has improved in percentage points. Instead, the color becomes progressively redder as the percentage collected drops from the past.

In short, the more blue is prevalent in a map and the more the color is “strong”, the more the party is improved. On the contrary, if red dominates, particularly in its most intense gradation, then it means that the outcome has worsened. And if instead the softer shades (both red and blue) prevail, it means that the deviation, in one direction or the other, was slight.

Winning brothers

Five years can be an era, politically speaking. And the comparison between the results of Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) in 2023 compared to 2018 is the most plastic demonstration of this. In fact, Giorgia Meloni’s party takes a spectacular leap forward compared to the regionals of five years ago. And the blue expanse of maps is there to prove it. In Lombardy, FdI gains in practically every municipality in the area (just two exceptions) with notable leaps in the large Lombard cities: +17 percentage points in Bergamo, +16 in Milan, +14 in Brescia.

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Even more spectacular is the situation in Lazio where the Prime Minister’s party adds 23 percentage points to Rome, registering only a single red spot in a landscape otherwise dominated by shades of blue.

The picture changes slightly if a comparison is made with the general elections in September. Compared to the autumn exploit, FdI is down in both regions (more in Lombardy). But, it must be said, in this case the comparison is less significant: the nature of the competitions is different and the electoral system too.

Waning league

Opposite and specular speech for the League. Compared to 2018, the party drops almost everywhere in the Lombard municipalities. And therefore it is the bright red, which reveals a clear decline in consensus, that dominates. After all that, it was an important year for the movement under the leadership of Matteo Salvini, especially in the north, and the comparison can only be affected by this factor.

Not surprisingly, if the comparison moves to the 2022 general elections, the picture that emerges is a little different. Even remembering – once again – that we are dealing with elections of a different type, Salvini can try to gather some elements of consolation. Overall, the League remains stable and seems to be gaining something in the northernmost part of the Region which has always been one of the main vote pools of the green team.

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For Salvini’s party, Lazio does not have the same value, of course. The absolute percentages are decidedly smaller, but the picture and trends do not change too much compared to Lombardy. Only the nuances change which here, in the Lazio maps, are more attenuated – a sign of smaller deviations between one electoral session and another – but they tell a similar story: hemorrhage compared to 2018, held with some gains compared to 2022.

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The stalemate of the Pd

Soft colors, suffused hues for the maps of the Democratic Party in Lombardy. What does it mean? That the Democratic Party in the richest region of Italy neither progresses nor regresses significantly and red and blue tend to balance, in a prevalence of half tones. The defeat of the coalition and of the candidate still remains, but the party’s result is placed in a sort of limbo, open to the most diverse interpretations. And this is true both by comparing the response from last Monday’s polls with 2018 and with 2022 (although in this case there is a slight improvement).

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The indications coming from Lazio are clearer, where from one regional election to another the decline of the Democratic Party is unequivocal, as shown by the prevalence of red, even bright, in most of the municipalities in the region. And it is difficult to say whether the estate in the city of Rome can console the management engaged in the discussion that will lead to the appointment of the new secretary.

The optimists of the party, for their part, will always be able to focus their gaze on the comparison with the September policies which restore a decidedly rosier perspective, even if remaining faithful to the codes used in these maps it should be said to be bluer. If the comparison with the Policies makes sense – and, as mentioned, it does only up to a certain point – then some element of comfort for Democrats can come from there.

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5 Star Descent

Where the interpretation does not leave room for too many uncertainties and subtleties is in the parts of the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S). The color of the maps, both those of Lombardy and Lazio, is red and nothing but red. That is: the movement led by Giuseppe Conte retreats both in the north and in the center and both in comparison with the 2018 regional elections and with the 2022 policies.

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What changes, if anything, is the dimension of this step backwards in the various municipalities indicated by the different nuances. Much brighter if you look at 2018, which was a triumphant year for the M5S, decidedly softer than the electoral result of a few months ago. Even if, red or pink, the sign does not change: it remains negative.

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