Rossi: “Belgorod raid a sign of a Russian civil war?”

For the geopolitical expert, the operation by the ‘Russian partisans’ “openly challenged Putin and Shoigu”

“On Monday, May 22, the Russian guards at the Kozinka crossing were easily overwhelmed by an initial group of about fifty ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’ and ‘Legionnaires for Russia’s Freedom’, both made up of Russian citizens who fought against the troops of the Kremlin in Ukraine and from that day they began to fight the despot even at home. Soon they numbered more than five hundred and were able to occupy (or ‘liberate’) almost forty kilometers of territory, up to the village of Gravyoron, in an hour and twenty by car from Belgorod itself”. Geopolitical expert David Rossi says so, analyzing with Adnkronos the unprecedented incursion into Russian territory, earlier this week, by pro-Ukrainian Russian military groups. “They did it with incredible ease – comments Rossi – but above all almost with their faces uncovered, as if to tell the Kremlin and the world that they weren’t Ukrainians in disguise but really Russian citizens ready for armed revolt or civil war”.

“Until now, they had limited themselves to symbolic gestures, such as the promotion of their symbols and the word ‘freedom’ – continues the analyst – When they had carried out sabotage actions and hit targeted targets, they had always done so keeping a low profile. Since 22 May showed the faces of their commanders, as if to challenge Putin and Shoigu, but above all they carried out – as Russians – a partisan struggle in Russian territory – therefore, something different from the separatism of the Chechens – But above all, they openly used for the first time the term ‘civil war’, which goes far beyond the dissent and peaceful opposition of Navalny or Kara-Murza, stuck in prison for long sentences. In short, they gave us the key to understanding the gesture: the beginning of an internal armed conflict and a liberation movement within the Russian Federation”.

“Since last October the Russians have dedicated themselves to the construction of the so-called ‘Wagner line’ – recalls Rossi – Endless tracks of pyramid-shaped concrete blocks installed in the Crimea, in the Donbass – several kilometers behind the front line, implicitly anticipating the breakthrough of the front by the Kiev troops – and in the Russian regions around north-eastern Ukraine, at a distance that until a few days ago we would have considered too prudent. This defense system, according to witnesses, held up for less than a minute to the surprise attack of a well-organized but numerically small contingent. Less than sixty seconds: the time necessary for heavy vehicles – equipped like rudimentary bulldozers – to push aside the ‘dragon’s teeth’. In the following hours, some western videos demonstrated how a Challenger 2 tank can clear such concrete blocks almost effortlessly.”

“It doesn’t even sound strange – continues Rossi – It seemed immediately evident that the infamous ‘concrete pyramids’ were only resting on the surface, while the Swiss, for decades ‘magicians’ in installing this kind of protection ‘anchored them ‘ sinking them into the ground by one or two meters. Even without a bulldozer, an artillery shell of 155 millimeters or even of a smaller caliber could destroy or displace them. Finally, many photos spread on social networks testify that the ‘rings’ with which had been lifted by cranes at the time of installation, instead of being buried, they were left on top, as if to facilitate their removal.In short, it is a decoration that – once the war is over – farmers will be able to move with tractors or even just with the strength of a dozen or two arms”.

“With this operation, which lasted almost three days and was characterized by the ‘easy’ penetration through at least four points of the border – Rossi points out – Kiev demonstrated that the ‘fortifications’ to which Moscow has entrusted the task of protecting its positions in occupied Ukraine are useless, unless they are constantly manned by well-prepared and well-equipped soldiers. In short, at most they serve to cover riflemen or snipers. As if that weren’t enough, the Ukrainian military leaders – even risking closing up in a bag on Tuesday the 23rd more than three hundred kilometers of Russian territory – confirmed that the Kremlin has troop numbers: the operation could have ended in carnage for the ‘anti-Putin rebels’ if there had been a few thousand well-trained and well-armed troops ready for use, while in the test of facts the Russian ‘volunteers’ and ‘legionaries’ – at the price of extending the supply lines and escape routes too much – could have even gone deeper”.

“How to blame the former FSB colonel, former Donetsk defense minister and current nationalist mini-blogger Igor Girkin – says Rossi – when he claims that these cross-border raids are part of a broader Ukrainian counter-offensive strategy, aimed at diverting troops from the occupied territories to ‘cover the gaps’ in the border regions? Nor is the patron of PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, wrong when he argues that the inefficiencies of the Russian political-military system have endangered the security of the Russian oblasts around Ukraine and that the Russian Federation itself risks a scenario like 1917. It’s not just the ‘dragon’s teeth’ that are shattered by this episode of the war: the same fate also befalls one of the major weapons of Russian propaganda in the West. removes from the table, in fact, the fears that Ukrainian attacks – or, as in this case, ‘favored’ by Kiev – will result in an escalation of the conflict and a devastating reaction from Moscow: on 24 February a year ago, at the beginning of the ‘special military operation’, Putin warned against ‘interference from outside to hinder us or even more to create threats to Russia: the response would have been unprecedented in history'”.

“Echoing those words – concludes Rossi – the Kremlin and Western analysts opposed to the rearmament of Kiev have often feared the risk of a very harsh reaction by Putin & Co. to the ‘threats’ against their own territory. Attacks with drones, sabotage, missile launches and now the demonstrative occupation of a part of Russian territory testify to the opposite: Moscow knows it is powerless and that the conditions of the Russian armed forces – but also of society, the economy and the state – do not allow the Kremlin to respond seriously to anyone, indeed confirm that attacking Russia on its own territory – in Belgorod as in Moscow – is the only way to be sure of being heard: there is no better way to force the Kremlin to pull the short blanket of the own troops on one side to then strike on the other. Tell Putin that this was the strategy of the Russians against Napoleon…”.