The “minimal, but positive” agreement reached at COP26 in Glasgow actually hides a “gigantic” political and strategic problem which, if not resolved, “will prevent real progress on the reduction of CO2 emissions”: the transfer of technologies from the West to developing countries such as India and China. This was supported by the sinologist Francesco Sisci, professor of geopolitics at Luiss, in an interview with Adnkronos.
According to Sisci, in principle all countries want to produce more energy while polluting less, but to do so they need technologies, such as new generation nuclear power, often dual (which can be used for both civil and military purposes). “These technologies have developed countries but those who pollute the most are those in the developing world such as China and India”, explains the sinologist, highlighting the tensions between Washington and Beijing.
“It is difficult for America or the West to want to transfer new and innovative dual technologies to China at this point – continues Sisci – It is possible instead that this type of transfer will take place in the near future to India, which has signed the pact. military in the context of the Quad “, an alliance between the USA, Australia, India and Japan in an anti-Chinese key.
If China at some point does not have these technologies, it will not be able to keep its commitments and will simply pollute more, is the reasoning of the expert, according to which in these negotiations on the environment there is always “a guest of stone “which are strategic and military issues and” I fear that we are heading towards a period in which pollution will increase “.
In the light of his considerations, Sisci argues that the one between China and the US is not a real agreement but “an understanding of principle”, certainly “positive” because it “alleviates tensions” before the Xi-Biden summit, but which remains “impracticable” “without the transfer of technologies. “An agreement on the environment – he highlights – should have been done in 2009 in Copenhagen but it failed for a thousand reasons, that agreement provided for a transfer of technologies and today I do not see a return to this type of agreement”.
On the talks between the Chinese and US leaders, Sisci believes the goal will be to try to “normalize” the ‘second cold war’ situation. “There is no reassurance of relations, but what both countries have in mind is to prevent the situation from degenerating – he concludes – Put the brakes on to avoid generating a hot war on one of the many open fronts is positive”.