Smallpox monkeys, peak phase in Italy but cases at least double: the study

Analysis conducted by Lumsa and Campus Bio-Medico of Rome

in Italy we are close to the peak “as far as monkeypox is concerned” but the cases are underestimated: probably at least double “. This is the study, in the publication phase, signed by Antonello Maruotti, Professor of Statistics at the Lumsa University, and by Massimo Ciccozzi, head of the Medical Statistics and Epidemiology Unit of the Faculty of Medicine and Surgery of the Bio-Medico Campus of Rome.

“We have analyzed the data of the top 10 countries most affected by monkeypox – anticipates Adnkronos Salute Maruotti – In some, such as Germany, the peak has already been reached. Brazil is in full expansion phase. In the US we can foresee the peak towards the end of August, the same in France. In Italy we are more or less in the peak phase “.

The research also examined the possibility that Monkeypox virus infections are underestimated in Italy. In the latest bulletin of the Ministry of Health, 505 cases are confirmed. “We have estimated that the infections can be about double in Italy, as well as in Brazil and France, and triple in Spain. There is a large slice of positives that escape the official network – warns Maruotti – for two problems: the low number of tests, the same problem we had in the initial stages of Covid, and the fact that doctors cannot immediately identify a case “.