What will the weather be like until Thursday 15th February?
They come back sun and mild weather in Italy after a period of bad weather with rain, wind but also snow. It is the effect of the anticyclone on winter – which never seems to have really taken off – and which will bring above average temperatures (even above 20 degrees) in the next few days, at least according to projections. These the experts’ weather forecast for todayFebruary 13, 2024.
High pressure returns, what weather experts say
Lorenzo Tedici, meteorologist of the website www.iLMeteo.it, therefore confirms the comeback of high pressure, once again overbearing and decisive from North Africa: if we had been in summer we would have reached 40 degrees, in the middle of winter we will reach 22-23 degrees again which in any case are not few for February.
Winter doesn’t want to arrive: even sub-seasonal projections (long-term, up to 42 days) indicate temperatures widely above the average for the period for the next 6 weeks, not only in Italy but across much of Europe: only between Norway, Sweden and Finland, the winter could be colder than normal even until the end of March, according to the projections of the weather model of the prestigious ECMWF calculation center (European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts).
A 2024 which therefore continues to be mild and anomalous, thanks to the presence of the El Nino phenomenon with the waters of the eastern Pacific decidedly warmer than normal and capable of influencing the climate also on a global level: according to the latest projections the waters of the Pacific Eastern will remain very hot until the summer, promising seasons once again above the climatic averages, averages which have now been regularly torn apart for decades with climate change linked to the greenhouse effect of anthropic origin.
In short, man, with the use of fossil fuels, has distorted the climate from 1850 onwards and today we see the consequences in Italy too: there are winter seasons with almost no snow in the Po Valley and only mild frosts, in the Centre- In the South, the frosts of the past on the plains have almost disappeared, while a minimal snow cover is observable only on the highest peaks of the Apennines.
This latest North African heat coming will also be linked to the new atmospheric circulation caused by climate change: the famous ‘Camel’, the African anticyclone which remained a mysterious object until 1990, will return to visit us with a frequency that has become anomalous in the last 30 years and outside of any climatological trend.
In short, to experience the real winter we will have to move to Stockholm; for spring lovers, however, we will also be able to stay in Milan without going to the Caribbean: the maximum temperatures will rise up to 15-16 degrees, values that normally under the spiers of the Duomo are recorded only at the end of March – beginning of April.
To find any unstable features we will still have a few hours between today and tomorrow when showers are expected in the Middle Adriatic moving towards the South and an intensification of the Mistral between Sardinia and the southern regions.
For Valentine’s Day the weather will be mild and sunny everywhere, except between Puglia and Ionian Calabria where the wind will still be intense, sharp and at times cold.
But, as mentioned, the North African anticyclone will kill the winter again, prolonging an autumn that lasts for 4 months (November, December, January and February) after an endless summer (September and October were months of full summer with exceptional heat): this is the new calendar of seasons disrupted by Global Warming.
The forecasts in detail
Tuesday 13. In the north: sunny with mild weather. In the centre: sunny except for some showers on the Adriatic especially in the morning. In the south: a little unstable especially in the afternoon with showers and strong winds.
Wednesday 14. In the north: all sunshine and pleasant weather except for fog in the Northeast. In the center: clear or slightly cloudy skies with mild weather. In the south: good weather, still windy at times.
Thursday 15. In the north: all sun and pleasant weather. In the center: sunny with highs above the average for the period. In the south: good and mild weather with highs up to 23 degrees.
Trend: stable weather and no rain until Friday, then some more weather uncertainty.