Taiwan, Sisci: “War difficult but not impossible, China on the corner”

The sinologist explains the reasons why “the Chinese cannot make a war. There will still be a reaction to Pelosi’s visit to the island. But Beijing must change its approach”.

“There are risks”, but “not of a war” because “a war is difficult, not impossible”. However, a “reaction” will come from China since otherwise there would be “internal effects” after threats remained in the air and for the Asian giant it becomes increasingly urgent to “radically change the mental approach”. Sinologist Francesco Sisci talks to Adnkronos while news about the same day arrival in Taiwan of the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, and the Chinese moves, between rhetoric and military activity.

For Beijing, Taiwan is a “rebel province” to be “reunified” and the United States must abide by the “one China principle”. A war, says Sisci, “is difficult” for “three main reasons”, first of all “China imports 150 million tons of protein, meat, soy from abroad, especially from America” ​​and “in the event of an embargo” there would be repercussions for the food of the Chinese, who have wheat and rice. Then, he continues in the analysis, “a great pillar of the Chinese economy, if not the main one, is the trade surplus” and therefore “a war that jeopardizes the Chinese trade surplus would undermine the country’s economy”.

Third, he adds, “China of one-offs can hardly afford to sacrifice its only children or many of its only children in a war.” “I would exclude the war also because the Chinese are traders – he points out – As by nature, they are not warriors like the Russians”.

‘either the Asian giant changes its regime or it changes its vision of the world and possibly should do both’

And from the Chinese who “cannot wage war” will come a “reaction, which in any case will not bring anything good” and it will come because “if they do not react there will be internal effects” and “the problem is that China has put itself back into action again. a situation in which any choice is wrong “. She has put herself in a “corner” and “must try to get out”.

According to Sisci, the Asian giant “should learn to put himself in situations where he has two, three useful choices, not two or three all wrong choices”, but this “means a radical change of mental approach”. “He must change his mental approach because he cannot get to put himself in positions of enormous difficulty where every choice he makes in the end is wrong”, he continues, convinced that “China will do something and if it does something the situation will screw up” because it will have to “be treated. as a tiger “, while if” he does nothing he will prove to be a paper tiger “.

The point, he concludes, is that “democracy allows you to absorb crises” while “authoritarian regimes from a practical point of view do not have this possibility” and “either China changes its regime or changes its vision of the world and possibly should do all and two”.