The death of Putin and Zelensky, the possible scenarios for the US 007s

From the deaths of Putin and Zelensky to an attack on the Kremlin, hypotheses for a potential escalation outlined by intelligence in a February 24, 2023 document reported by the New York Times

The deaths of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a change of leadership in the Russian Armed Forces and a Ukrainian attack on the Kremlin are the 4 ‘improbable’, but still possible, scenarios outlined by US intelligence in a document dated February 24, 2023, published on the first anniversary of the start of the war between Ukraine and Russia and accessed by the New York Times.

The document describes how each of these situations could potentially lead to an escalation in Ukraine, to a negotiated end to the conflict or no significant impact on the course of the war. At the same time, in the descriptions of possible events, there is no assessment of what could be the most probable.

L’analysis conducted by the US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency with scenarios about the outcome of the war is a fairly typical product for intelligence services. It is designed to help military officers, politicians or legislators consider the possible consequences of major events as they evaluate their options for action.

“One of the four hypothetical scenarios shows what could happen if Ukraine hit the Kremlin – writes US intelligence – A wide range of potential consequences are identified. This event could escalate if Putin, in response to public outcry, initiates a full-scale military mobilization and considers the possibility of tactical nuclear threats. The same event could lead the Russian president to negotiate for a solution to the war.”

“The Biden administration is particularly concerned about a possible attack on Moscow by Ukraine – concludes the report – as it could cause a major escalation by Russia. The danger of such an attack from Ukraine is one of the reasons for which the United States is reluctant to supply Kiev with long-range missiles”.