Carmon, an authority in the field of counter-terrorism, had foreseen everything
“A war against Israel could begin in September or October 2023.” The Hamas attack on Israel, carried out on Saturday 7 October, was not a surprise to everyone. In particular not for Yigal Carmon, counter-terrorism expert and for years advisor to Israeli prime ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin. Carmon, a very prominent name in the Israeli intelligence community, published an article on August 31 on the website of MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute which he directs. The title of the article leaves little room for interpretation: “Signs of a possible war in September-October”. And today, in light of the news of the last 72 hours, it becomes an impressive document for its lucidity, clarity and precision.
The picture previewed 40 days ago
In the article, structured in 5 points, Carmon outlined the framework that actually led to the start of a conflict. “Signs have multiplied lately that a war against Israel could break out in September or October 2023. The trigger could be a spiral of violent clashes that would cause many casualties, or the use of new weapons that would cause many casualties for the side and which Israel would not be able to counter with its regular anti-terrorism measures,” the expert wrote.
“Although neither Hamas nor Hezbollah is eager to initiate a global confrontation with Israel, such a confrontation could result from an uncontrolled deterioration of the situation on the ground or from the use of new and unusually lethal weapons by these movements,” it added in the analysis that , reread today, appears impressive in its precision and correctness.
If the first point focused on Hezbollah’s provocations on Israel’s northern border, the second point focused – in relation to Hamas – on the “adoption of fighting methods in Gaza by Islamic terrorist organizations in the West Bank, such as launching of rockets”.
The threat of Hamas and the axis with Iran
In the document, particularly in the fourth point, Carmon underlined that “the leaders of terrorist organizations have recently increased their threats of a global regional war, in response to Israeli threats to assassinate the perpetrators of terrorist actions and their instigators.”
The article made particular reference to Saleh ‘Arouri, leader of Hamas: “In an interview he threatened to intensify the confrontation with Israel to the point of a global war: ‘We are preparing for a global war and we are discussing it behind closed doors with all the elements and components that are connected to this war'”. The signals, essentially, were obvious to the expert.
The text highlighted Iran’s involvement for the creation of an anti-Israeli ‘axis’ and high-level meetings in Beirut were mentioned, highlighted in the last few hours by the Wall Street Journal. Carmon spoke about it 40 days ago, with the belief that there was the “possibility of an unprecedented increase in the number of Israeli victims following the use of new deadly weapons, with Israel forced to respond even at the cost of a global war”.