The International Monetary Fund improves its forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product. Inflation is seen falling but suggests avoiding a premature interest rate cut. Growth of 0.7% is expected for our country in 2024, the same level reached in 2023
The Italian economy certainly did not shine, but it defended itself in 2023. The boost that arrived after the extraordinary fall in the first year of the pandemic ran out, inflation – although falling – continued to bite, the war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East threaten energy prices and global trade.
Istat: GDP +0.7% in 2023
Thus, last year the gross domestic product grew by 0.7 percent per year, Istat tells us in its preliminary estimate, which takes into account the small increase (+0.2) recorded in the last part of 2023 .
Better than us were Spain and France, Germany in recession
If we look beyond our borders, things haven’t gone much better: Spain had an unexpected rise, France didn’t outperform us by much, while Germany, the locomotive of Europe, fell into recession. We are above the European average (+0.5) but one step lower than what the government expected, which expected GDP to increase by 0.8, even if the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti had feared a slowdown .
The IMF improves estimates globally
For the current year the scenario is not expected to change much. The International Monetary Fund does not expect any leap even if, on a global level, it sees an improvement compared to what it formulated in October (from 2.9 to 3.1%).
The variables that matter
The pressure of high interest rates to fight inflation, the squeeze on public aid and low productivity lead the Washington Institute to greater optimism for the United States and China, but not for Europe, while Russia, despite sanctions, should rise by 2.6 percent.
The risks of less robust growth
For Italy there is no difference compared to what was recorded in 2023, with forecasts – therefore – in line with those of the other major observers and more pessimistic than what the government expects. Which, with a GDP that will run less quickly, risks having to cut spending or increase taxes in order to keep its promises.