The impact of rising inflation on Italian savings

The constant increase in prices threatens to directly affect our portfolio. For this it can be useful to know how to protect yourself. The board of Carlo De Luca, of Gamma Capital Markets, spoke to Sky TG24 Business . THE VIDEO

According to the latest Istat data, inflation in Italy increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis and by 3% on an annual basis, marking a + 2.5% compared to September, as well as a record since 2012. High inflation In addition to affecting consumers, it can also put their savings at risk. In fact, if prices rapidly increase the money on a current account, which does not guarantee any return, the inflation rate will be devalued. Bonds, like government bonds, can also be at risk, given their low average yields that are often fixed over time. Because of this Carlo De Luca, from Gamma Capital Markets, who spoke to Sky TG24 Business warns: “You have to be very cautious and keep a share of shares in your portfolio. If inflation were to last longer, the shares would tend to preserve the cost”. In fact, stocks, although riskier, could compensate for the loss of real value of savings.

Behind that + 3% detected by the National Statistics Institute, however, there could also be positive sides. “In principle – he continues – the fact that inflation is a little higher interest rates, for a temporary period, is a positive figure because the deficit / GDP ratio, one of the parameters that measures how virtuous a country is, improves. If the Gross Domestic Product increases, this ratio decreases “.

Provided that inflation is really temporary. For Christine Lagarde it is, so much so that yesterday, in a hearing in the European Parliament, she explained how the “decline in inflation will take longer than expected” but that, in the medium term, she continues to forecast it below the 2% target. The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) has no doubts: interest rates are not set to rise in 2022 and energy prices will start to fall in the first half of next year. On the other side of the ocean, Janet Yellen herself, US Treasury Secretary, had declared how “the pandemic has caused high inflation. If we want to reduce it, I think that fighting the infection is the most effective weapon”.

Temporary, yes, but how much? For De Luca, “maybe 6 months because the blocking of the supply chain certainly weighed, but an analyst, just a few days ago, said that we are not talking about stagflation, reflation, or deflation, but a whip” of inflation “due to the recovery of the economy after lockdown: it is a machine that has suddenly turned off and now needs to be turned on again with bottlenecks due to chips, containers, increased energy “.

The point, for the expert, is this: “We have an inflation that increases because there is a blockage of supply and there is not a great demand in consumption. It is not sustainable that it continues for who knows how long: the sooner or later the offer will reach production capacities equal to those of before “. On the other hand, “it cannot last indefinitely. One, because supply then aligns itself again; two, because in any case consumption then tends to realign itself with it”.

In the episode of Sky TG24 Business on November 16, there is also space for the policies necessary to reduce the gender gap with Marina Calderone, president of the National Council of the order of labor consultants.