The stock of the telecommunications group was the protagonist of a super Monday on the stock market, with a rise of 30%, after the offer arrived from the States. The negotiation, far from simple, is still in the initial phase, but in the meantime the possible scenarios that could occur are beginning to take shape. The Board of Directors on 26 November was crucial
After the offer of the American fund Kkr, made known last weekend, Tim was the protagonist of a super Monday on the stock market, with a rise of 30%. The stock of the telecommunications group, for which the American fund Kkr is interested in taking a takeover bid at € 0.505 per share, has already recovered 10 cents, closing the first day of the trading week at € 0.451. The negotiation, far from simple, is still in the initial phase, but in the meantime the possible scenarios that could occur if the American fund were to take over the Italian telephone operator are beginning to emerge.
At what point is the negotiation
Kkr will confirm its offer only after a 4-week due diligence and the OK from the Government. But at the moment Vivendi, which holds 23.75% of Tim at an average carrying price of 1 euro, is not enough: “Kkr’s offer does not reflect Tim’s real value, it is insufficient”, they reported. sources close to the French group. Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, which owns about 10% of the shares of the telephone operator, remains silent, waiting to speak in the institutional offices. We therefore look to the board of directors of 26 November. Last year Kkr joined Fibercop, a company in charge of developing and laying fiber or copper connections up to individual homes, alongside Tim and Fastweb, with 37.5% of the share capital.
What could be the next steps
According to UBS analysts, Kkr “could be forced to rise” and 83 cents per share could be the price that everyone agrees even if “being the threshold at 51%, the bid could be successful even if the French did not bring their actions “. The potential obstacles to the negotiation, analysts still argue, “are the issue of competition (with the material influence of CDP on two fixed networks) and Vivendi. Government support is good,” the status quo may no longer be politically acceptable “Jefferies analysts comment, and some also fear that in the medium term Tim” may not be able to maintain his current investment plans “in FTTH, the technology that brings fiber straight home, after two revisions of the guidance.
What could happen if Kkr were to acquire Tim
Kkr’s plans for Tim after the acquisition have not been outlined but the Terna model is a hypothesis on which the market is beginning to think too. By Terna model we mean a separation between the company that would manage the grids and the one that would handle the services, as happens for electricity in Italy after the exit of Enel, precisely from Terna. Tim, on the other hand, currently deals with both the management of networks and infrastructures, and the services offered for telecommunications. A separation of the branches, this one, to which the government would look with interest because it could concentrate on controlling the network, especially in view of the investments of the NRP.
Vivendi’s discontent and the next board of directors
Now the word is on the board of directors which will meet next Friday, November 26th. The calling of the extraordinary meeting would have arisen from Vivendi’s discontent which, according to press indiscretions, was joined by the disappointment of the directors representing the funds who question the governance and ask Luigi Gubitosi to justify the deterioration of the company accounts after two revisions of the guidance and the cut of the rating by S&P. On that same occasion it is expected that Kkr’s proposal will also be discussed to kick off negotiations and due diligence with a technical step, choosing advisors.