The ISPI president thus comments on the ceremony in the Kremlin, with the signing of the annexation treaties that marks “a new escalation of the conflict”, during which he said he was ready to negotiate, provided that Kiev recognizes the new reality on the ground
With the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions to Russia, Vladimir Putin has started the third phase of his special operation, the one in which he believes that the objectives indicated in the second have been achieved – the conquest of Donbass, after having ‘given up’ the taking of Kiev of the first phase – and now awaits the surrender of the Ukrainians. “A reality written on paper, only virtual”. Giampiero Massolo, ISPI president, comments on the ceremony in the Kremlin, with the signing of the annexation treaties that marks “a new escalation of the conflict”, during which he said he was ready to negotiate, provided that Kiev recognizes the new reality on the ground.
“We are in a situation in which Putin cannot lose this war, because he made it a personal matter and losing it would compromise the foundations of his power – underlines Massolo, speaking with Adnkronos – But the massacres, the terrible facts of these months make it impossible for Zelensky to settle any peace. While the West cannot accept a situation in which the very foundation of the rules of civil coexistence in the international community is upset “.
According to the ambassador, former secretary general of the Farnesina and former director of Dis, now “we are faced with a new escalation, which in Putin’s perspective responds to a classic move, that of using Russian communities abroad, to say who wants to defend them because they are threatened, proclaim puppet republics and conduct farce referendums, then annexing them in contempt of any international rule “.
All this, Massolo observes, serves “to give the Russian people the feeling of having made sense of the special operation, they could not fail to do so because it mobilized 300,000 reservists. And now they say they are ready to negotiate, demanding the surrender of the Ukrainians”. Without forgetting that in this way he created “a legal motivation to react if there was an attack on what is now Russian soil for him”.
A condition that creates “an escalation in the escalation, with the implicit threat of the use of nuclear weapons”, argues the president of ISPI. Convinced that “immediately” Putin will hardly reach “the irreparable, which is not in his interest, his interest is to remain in power, being able to use other tools first”. Massolo thinks of the “cyber threat that he has not yet fully used, of migratory flows, of the interruption of supplies, of the possibility of fomenting local conflicts, some of which proliferate in areas of Islamic extremism, of sabotage actions”, as it could be happened with the Nord Stream.
Therefore, according to the ISPI president, we are preparing for a “probably long phase, in which, having difficulty in doing so on the ground, it will continue by all means to try to divide the West, to weaken its public opinions, where the The West has so far shown sufficient cohesion “, while from China and India there are” signs of growing unease, not negligible, for fear that the situation may get out of hand, even if it is still early to say “that these signals will bring to some kind of realignment.
In the meantime “the bad weather is advancing, in those regions the situation will be held back by the arrival of the mud”, so we are moving towards a situation in which “there will be no decisive progress, a situation in which the Ukrainians will continue the counter-offensive, but the Russians will not give up and, having difficulties on the ground, they will try to escalate by other means “, argues the president of ISPI.
Which then speaks of the “creaks” that are increasingly felt in Russia with the protests following the announcement of the partial mobilization: “We are used to the fact that dictatorships sometimes fall suddenly, they break down, we cannot exclude that this also happens in Moscow , but it does not seem to me that we are still at that point and this too is part of the challenge of the time “of this war,” Putin tries to divide us, we to exhaust the aggressor.
We have therefore entered the third phase of the conflict, Massolo says, “on the basis of the idea that the special operation has had results and the Ukrainians are expected to surrender. But all this is written on paper, it is a reality virtual, because Putin is in fact in trouble, all these signs indicate weakness rather than strength, even if the weakness of those who possess a nuclear arsenal “.