Ukraine, May 9: achievements? Putin will tell his truth

Odessa node, Kiev could decide to go ahead, US-GB push to consume Russia

Vladimir Putin could also stop on May 9, the day of the Victory Parade, claiming to have achieved some of his goals, but it is not certain that in Kiev, under the pressure of the Anglo-Americans for whom the goal is “to weaken Russia and consume his strengths “, do not decide to go on. This is the scenario outlined at Adnkronos by some analysts who are experts in Russian affairs, however surprised by the progress of phase two of the so-called ‘special military operation’, which continues to proceed slowly in a territory, the Donbass, which should have been less difficult for the Moscow forces.

“There is no doubt that the new Russian general in command of the operation, Aleksandr Dvornikov is trying to better integrate the Armed Forces and improve logistics” after the difficulties encountered in the first weeks of the war, explains an analyst, but “this the program goes slower than Putin wanted, times are extended “. It is therefore difficult today to predict whether the Donbass will be under the control of Moscow by 9 May.

But “in Russia there is always a way to construct a truth”, underlines an expert, according to whom the Russian president seems to have become “more realistic in his statements”. In recent days, after the underestimations and errors of the first phase, Putin has begun to limit the objectives of the operation to territorial conquests – these are the ‘red lines’ – while before the issues were also other, from no to the entry of the ‘Ukraine in NATO, to denazification and demilitarization.

Among the territorial objectives, it is not yet clear what Russia would like to do with Odessa, ‘point dolens’ and at the same time ‘dream’ of Moscow, with the extremist wing of the Kremlin who would like to take the city reaching Transnistria, and the most moderate, which would be enough to conquer the Donbass. “It seems difficult for the Ukrainians to give up Odessa and its port on the Black Sea. There, more than ever, there will be the point of friction or the point of balance” between the two visions in Moscow, argues an analyst, whose impression is of “a step by step strategy” on this goal. To achieve which they would have to invest much more than they have done so far, while hypothesizing complicated scenarios for the city, such as the creation of a special economic zone or a mixed port authority.

“Odessa encircled and Donbass under Russian control, on these bases Putin could declare that he has achieved his goals”, underlines a source, however warning against the media war that could break out soon after. Assuming that a ceasefire is reached, the exchange of accusations between the parties on mutual violations would begin immediately. A scenario that in fact confirms the impossibility of a two-party negotiation and the need rather for an international conference with large countries as guarantors. On the model of Helsinki, as re-launched yesterday by the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella, but which Moscow rejects.

Meanwhile, on the Russian home front we are beginning to see some small signs of letting up, at least among the oligarchs. “Surely there is discontent – says an informed source – But if this discontent translates into something more it is difficult to say. Putin is counting on three ‘constituencies: the siloviki, the Kremlin loyalists who would like to bring the war to Transnistria, the oligarchs and the people. As long as he can count on the support of two out of three, and for the moment he has it, his power will remain intact “. Unlike the case of the former vice president of Gazprombank, Igor Volobuev, of Ukrainian origin, who resigned to join the resistance in Kiev. “Putin has achieved with the war exactly the opposite of what he wanted, Russians and Ukrainians are no longer brothers, Moscow is full of Ukrainians who either cut the umbilical cord or take sides”, the source says.