Ukraine-Russia, Kiev’s advance towards Bakhmut: the analysis

The report from the Institute for the study of war, which traces the progress of the Ukrainian army

In the war against Russia, Ukraine’s advance continues, engaged in the harsh counter-offensive against Moscow. But what is the progress of Kiev’s forces? The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) responds by tracing the recent photograph of the fighting in an analysis. “Ukrainian forces – it reads – advanced marginally near Bakhmut and in the western Zaporizhzhia oblast yesterday. Geotagged footage published on September 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10 km north- west of Bakhmut). Additional footage released the same day indicates that Russian forces probably no longer control a line of trenches about a kilometer long west of Verbove (16 km southeast of Orikhiv).” According to the ISW, “the absence of Russian forces in this trench line could facilitate further Ukrainian advances in the area, as this line no longer represents a significant obstacle for Ukrainian forces.”

Kiev’s confirmation of progress

To confirm its analysis, the ISW quotes the commander of the Ukrainian Tavriisk military group, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who said that “there will be good news” in the operational direction of Zaporizhzhia and noted that Ukrainian forces are constantly advancing . “The situation near Verbove remains unclear – the analysts of the US think tank continue – as the most prominent Russian bloggers have become noticeably less inclined to report in detail Russian activity on this front line or to present bad news about Moscow’s failures “.

Russian statements

“On September 26 – American experts recall – Vladimir Rogov, a Russian official from the Zaporizhizha oblast, said that at least four Ukrainian companies with a significant number of armored vehicles stormed Russian positions along the Robotyne-Verbove line after having conducted a massive artillery barrage. A Russian blogger who supports the commander of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), General Mikhail Teplinsky, criticizing the Defense Ministry, responded to Rogov, stating that Ukrainian forces have already passed the minefields and the ‘dragon’s teeth’ anti-tank fortifications on the Robotyne-Verbove line and that Ukrainian forces would sooner or later conduct such attacks.”

The ISW observed a tendency to make “exaggerated statements and implausible statements in favor of Teplinsky against Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov. The Russian information space has recently been very reluctant to discuss the operations of Russian forces in the western Zaporizhzhia oblast, as the Russian blogger community reduced its criticism of the Russian conduct of the war on this sector of the front after the June 24 rebellion of Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.”