Ukraine-Russia, moves and strategies 6 months after the start of the war: scenarios of the conflict

We are moving towards a draw, but there is a risk of Russian defensive escalation

Six months after the start, the war in Ukraine continues its slow pace, its work of wearing down both fronts, in the fear, however, of “an excessive step” by the forces of Kiev that would cause an escalation by Russia. In the absence of jolts, the war is expected to end with a “draw on the field” and a dividing line like the one that divides the two Koreas..

The unorthodox comparison that is used by a Western analyst consulted by Adnkronos to describe Ukraine’s action against Russia is that of the “grater”, which operated on the outer layers of the forces, now burnt in their front line. in terms of means and personnel, and which is now hitting the rear, logistics, with a trend that has recently led Moscow to move military aircraft deployed in Crimea, thus limiting the ability of Russian forces to move ammunition where can be used.

“The war of friction can take different forms: the one in which the forces find themselves is now comparable to a slow erosion of the cheese, with great attention not to detach a too large piece of it. The phase of almost hand-to-hand confrontation is over. , in which short-range weapons burned the Russian forces trying to advance – he says – The grain of the grater has therefore changed. Now the Ukrainians have weapons that go deeper, such as Himars rocket launchers or anti-radar missiles that allow the progressive destruction of enemy radars “.

The war began on February 24 with a Russian frontal attack in all directions. Russian forces were decimated with short-range weapons such as Javelins. When the losses became unbearable, Moscow’s forces withdrew completely from the big cities, regrouping in the Donbass and the South, in the Kherson region and in Mariupol and Zaporizhzhia.

The Russians then resorted to artillery “massively, with millions of shells”, bringing to Ukraine the echo of the great war in 1915. “And the Ukrainian forces then changed pace. They started hitting the rear, the ammunition depots, first with the howitzers, which have a range of 24-30 kilometers, and then with the rockets mounted on the Himars, which reach 70. But the strategy is the same from the beginning: gradually consume the forces enemies “, explains the analyst.

A possible escalation could be horizontal, “with the extension to other countries”, or vertical, with the general mobilization or even the use of unconventional weapons by Russia. When it comes to external aid, the reference is to personnel arriving from North Korea, weapons and technology (microchips, which Russia needs and in the absence of which it is forced to use Soviet systems without electronics) from China, ammunition and cheap drones from Iran. “That’s why you need a grater and not a knife or an ax”, the analyst explains.

But what will the final result be? A tie is the most probable outcome of this conflict considering that even the Ukrainians, for whom there is no problem of depletion of means, with military aid from the United States since the beginning of the war amounting to ten billion dollars, 90 for one hundred of which spent on ammunition, and by the EU of one billion euros, suffered huge personnel losses.

“Russia lost the war when it failed to overthrow the Ukrainian government. It also lost the war with the West, where before February 24 there was a wavering and doubtful attitude towards Moscow. , which is no more now. It remains to be seen where the furrow in the ground will be drawn. When military activities will be reduced, without victory or defeat, in a situation that could remain frozen for months, or even decades. The model is Korea. With a Line of Contact that becomes a Demilitarized Zone, “he concludes.