Ukraine-Russia, pressure on Kiev: war stopped, negotiations needed

The picture outlined by NBC based on information from US sources: negotiations with Putin must be made at the beginning of 2024

Volodymyr Zelensky will have to negotiate with Vladimir Putin to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. A ‘soft’ pressure begins on Kiev to outline the possibility of talks with Russia with the aim of ending the war that began over 600 days ago with the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin. The turning point is described by the broadcaster NBC, which refers to news and information provided by two US sources, including a currently operational official.

The contacts with Kiev would have outlined a very broad framework on the limits that would allow President Zelensky to reach an agreement. The first talks, which in the reconstruction are defined as “sensitive”, took place in October during the summit of the Contact Group, which brings together more than 50 countries in support of Ukraine.

The discussions are the direct consequence and essentially the recognition of the consolidated military dynamics in the field of battle: According to sources, Kiev’s partners – in America and Europe – are observing the stalemate on the ground with concerns about the possibility of continuing to provide aid to Ukraine at the pace maintained so far. The administration of US President Joe Biden, in particular, is said to be concerned by the difficulty with which Ukraine continues to obtain soldiers, while Russia has a potentially unlimited supply. In Washington, signs of impatience in Ukraine were not underestimated, with protests against the prospect of further mobilizations.

On the ground, the war appears crystallized. American military sources have begun using the term “standoff” to describe the situation. Neither Russia nor Ukraine appear capable of producing decisive breaks and the conflict has escalated into a ‘war of centimetres’. According to analysts, Kiev probably has until the end of the year or perhaps until the beginning of 2024 before having to turn towards a negotiating approach.

The shift in attention to the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East must also be considered in the general picture: there is a well-founded fear that the new international context will complicate the process for guaranteeing further aid to Kiev.