“Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 in all scenarios considered”, reads the document quoted by the American newspaper
Russia’s war against Ukraine is expected to continue well into 2024, with both sides refusing to negotiate despite neither side scoring a decisive victory. It is the result of an alleged US intelligence assessment leaked online and obtained by the Washington Post.
The highly confidential document allegedly suggests that even if Ukraine recaptures a “significant” amount of territory and inflicts “unsustainable losses on Russian forces,” which US intelligence considers unlikely, the country’s gains would not lead to peace talks. . “Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 in all the scenarios considered”, reads the document quoted by the American newspaper.
The US intelligence assessment also predicts that the year will end with only “marginal” territorial gains for both sides due to “insufficient troops and supplies for effective operations.” The document describes such a stalemate as “the most likely scenario”, but also analyzes the possible outcomes of Russia or Ukraine gaining a “decisive advantage” on the battlefield. US officials have warned that their analysis of the war in Ukraine is fluid.