Ukraine, US warns Kiev: “It’s time to change the war course”

Sources: “We cannot guarantee this level of assistance forever”

Despite constant promises of support for Ukraine “for as long as necessary”, for the United States the first anniversary of the start of the conflict is an opportunity to send a message to Kiev on the need to use this crucial moment to change course of war, now that the peak of military supplies has come. That Washington, especially now, with a Congress half controlled by the Republicans, cannot ensure that they are always at these levels.

“We will continue to try to make people understand that we cannot insure everything and everything forever”, explain US sources, underlining the administration’s “strong belief” that it will be difficult to obtain the same level of military and economic assistance from Congress in the future. “Everything necessary refers to the duration of the conflict, not the amount of assistance” the sources specify.

For the Biden administration, the crucial moment will come in the coming weeks when, with the arrival of spring, Moscow will launch a new offensive, with Kiev responding by trying to reconquer the territories occupied by the Russians.

To underline the delicacy of the moment, a large US delegation is expected to arrive in Europe at the security conference that opens on Friday in Monaco, led by Vice President Kamala Harris and made up of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Internal Security, Alejandro Mayorkas. And then from Monday Biden’s mission to Poland, from where he will deliver the speech on the anniversary of the war.

Aside from the official mission schedule, confidential contacts are underway with a number of top administration officials – including Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, and Deputy Secretary to Defense, Colin Kahl – who went to Ukraine in recent weeks. And before that, the director of the CIA, William Burns, had arrived in Kiev to illustrate to Volodymyr Zelensky what, according to US intelligence, Moscow’s next plans for attack are.

The goal of Biden and his cohorts is to avoid any sign of defection or weakening of the Western alliance, to send a clear message of determination to Vladimir Putin. But some analysts warn that, given the situation on the ground, it is unlikely that Russia or Ukraine will gain a substantial military advantage in the foreseeable future.