Ukrainian war, “Russia at the crossroads”: the analysis

For British intelligence, Moscow must decide whether to strengthen the offensive in the east or the defense from the Ukrainian advance in the south

Russia at the crossroads in the war in Ukraine. Moscow commanders are faced with the dilemma of whether to strengthen their offensive to the east or to defend against the Ukrainian advance to the south. This is what the British intelligence bulletin on the war in Ukraine writes today, underlining that problems of this type were already at the origin of the poor results in the first phase of the invasion.

“In the past 24 hours, there has been intense fighting on three fronts: in the north near Kharkiv, in the east in Donbass and in the south in Kherson oblast. Russia’s most anticipated effort is probably an advance towards Bakhmut in Donbass, but the commanders are faced with the dilemma of whether to deploy operational reserves in support of this offensive, or whether to defend themselves in the face of continuing Ukrainian advances in the south, “notes British intelligence.

“These multiple and concurrent threats over a span of 500 km will test the Russian ability to coordinate the design of operations and reallocate resources across multiple groupings of forces. In the first phase of the war, the Russian failure to do so was one of the reasons. of its poor military performance “, concludes the bulletin.