Uphill maneuver between resource node and tight deadlines

Temporary exercise risk, the fear of not being able to approve the Budget Law by 31 December is growing among the banks of the newly elected Chambers. But the majority are already at work

The maneuver is expected to be uphill, between node resources and tight deadlines, but the majority is already working to avoid a provisional exercise. From what Adnkronos learns, the fear of not being able to approve the Budget Law by 31 December is growing among the benches of the newly elected Chambers.

Governments and chambers are historically very skilled in rushes to the limits of the last year but this time the challenge is demanding. In fact, political sources observed that if the maneuver arrived at the beginning of next month, the process would be safe, but if it were presented at the end of November there would be a real risk of not being able to approve it within the due time. This hypothesis is not too remote given that the government is still missing and consequently the offices of the staff of the dicasteries have not been indicated, nor have the members of the permanent parliamentary commissions been appointed.

The maneuver should also land first in the Council of Ministers, then in the Chambers, then the updated Dpb should be notified to the EU Commission and the Upb. All steps that require technical time to unfold, hoping that Brussels will not ask for changes. However, the temporary stop of the Stability Pact plays in favor of the government, which means that Rome could ignore any EU warnings without running into procedures but would certainly start the political confrontation with the wrong foot, in a phase in which we are thinking precisely about the reform of the Maastricht rules.

Another temporal variable on the table is the examination of the House and Senate: in the past years we have also witnessed practically ‘single-chamber’ Budget sessions, with the examination of the changes concentrated in a single Chamber to speed up the process, but – parliamentary sources observe – it would not be a good start for the first a newly elected government.

On the resources front, the Meloni government will not find the coffers dry, far from it, given that the Draghi executive would leave a total treasury of about 20 billion (between deficit 2022 better than expected of 0.5 points and extra revenue): of these at least 10 are used to extend the measures against the expensive bill of the Ter Aid and the remaining part for the maneuver and therefore the interventions of 2023. One a conspicuous dowry in reality but not sufficient if the new executive wanted to follow up on the battle horses of the electoral campaign.

Meanwhile, the Mef technicians work on the usual simulations and forecasts that are prepared in view of the budget. Upon his arrival, the new tenant of Via XX Settembre would therefore find tables and estimates with related exogenous and endogenous variables, it will then be necessary to see how to decline the planned interventions. However, to make it quick, the new majority is already working out the key measures of the Budget Law and the related decree. Among these, the hypotheses on the future of the Fornero Law with quota 41, the incremental flat tax and a new scrapping season with a flat rate on penalties and interest at 5% and a payment plan spread over at least five years for loads up to 30 last June.