US elections 2024, polls one year before the presidential elections: head-to-head between Biden and Trump

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There’s still a year to go but in the United States the race for the White House has already been in full swing for a while: on November 5, 2024 we will return to vote in the presidential elections, the sixtieth in the country’s history. If all goes as it seems, it will be the current head of Washington Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump who will challenge each other. The game is open: the latest polls sometimes show Biden ahead of Trump, sometimes the opposite, other times still a tie. To give some examples: according to a survey conducted between October 30th and November 1st by HarrisX for Messenger/Harris, Trump would be ahead of Biden by 45-43%; for a YouGov poll for The Economist On October 28-31, Biden would lead the race (39-38%). We can therefore talk about a head-to-head match. Only in the scenario of a survey – that of ABC-Washington at the end of September – there was a much wider gap between the two, with Trump at +9 points on his opponent: 51% against 42%.

Biden’s approval rating drops

In any case, the games are open and the situation could change. Biden’s approval rating among Democrats is in sharp decline, at least according to the results of a poll conducted by Gallup and released on October 26: the US president has lost 11 points among his electorate, reaching an approval rating of 75%. Overall, including non-democratic voters, it stood at 37%. It’s his personal best in the negative.

The eventual four-way race

However, it must also be noted that it is not certain that Trump and Biden are the only ones to reach the end of the race and stand for election. Stealing votes on both sides could be the two independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West. If you look at yet another poll, that of Quinnipiac University, in a hypothetical two-way contest Biden could prevail over Trump, with 47% and 46% respectively. If Kennedy is also counted, at 22%, Biden’s percentage drops to 39%, Trump’s to 36%. Also including West, the picture would be this: Biden 36%, Trump 35%, Kennedy 19%, West 6%. Much will therefore depend on what happens in these 12 months that separate us from the elections: both Biden and Trump will have to be very careful not to lose segments of their dissatisfied electorate. “Trump goes to war against the American legal system, while Biden fights military conflict on two fronts. Despite the swirling turmoil, partisan criticism, and rancor, the two candidates are still as close as can be,” summarizes the University analyst, Tim Malloy.