In 18 months spent an average of 2,300 euros more. It is estimated that the expenditure could exceed 5,300 euros in July 2024
Due to the rate hike due to the ECB’s monetary policy, those who have taken out an average variable-rate mortgage since January 2022 have suffered a total additional disbursement of over 2,300 euros in just a year and a half. This is revealed by the simulations of Facile.it and Mutui.it. Considering market expectations and how the Euribor, the reference index for variable mortgages, could vary within a year, it is estimated that spending could exceed 5,300 euros in July 2024.
For the analysis, the buyer referred to a variable-rate loan of 126,000 euros with a 25-year repayment plan signed in January 2022 and studied how the installments have increased from the beginning of 2022 to today and how they could vary again in the coming months based on Euribor Futures, i.e. market expectations. The starting rate (TAN) for January 2022 was 0.67%, corresponding to a monthly installment of 456 euros. Following the various increases in the cost of money implemented by the European Central Bank to counter inflation, the rate of that mortgage rose considerably, reaching 4.95% in August 2023 with an installment of around 726 euros ; data in hand, today the borrower finds himself paying as much as 60% more than at the beginning of 2022 (+270 euros).
Facile.it then calculated how much the increases in installments affected those who took out the loan under analysis; adding up the additional amounts paid each month with respect to the starting installment, it emerged that – from January 2022 to August 2023 – the total outlay for the borrower was over 2,300 euros. As mentioned, if market forecasts are taken into consideration, therefore Euribor futures, the overall burden in July 2024 could even be higher than 5,300 euros.
In recent weeks, the 3-month Euribor has slowed down its rise, but – according to experts’ expectations – between now and the end of the year, the index will continue to grow, reaching its peak between November and December 2023, when it will touch 3. 86%; this would lead the rate of the average mortgage examined to exceed 5.10%, with an installment of around 734 euros, or more than 275 euros more than that of January 2022. The good news is that with the start of the new year, the trend could finally reverse to such an extent that, looking at the quotations for March 2024, the rate of the mortgage under examination should drop to 5.02% and then even drop to 4.83% in June 2024.
“According to our expectations, at least until the end of the year, borrowers with floating rate loans will have to face further increases and, albeit slowly, from December 2023 rates will first stabilize and then begin to decrease and return below 3% , presumably, from mid-2025”, explains Ivano Cresto, Managing Director of financing products of Facile.it. “Although the impact of the price increases is different for everyone based on the amount outstanding on the mortgage and the number of installments still to be paid – the closer you are to the end of the amortization schedule, the less the effect will be – the advice is to establish the maximum level beyond which the installment could become unsustainable and contact your credit institution or an independent consultant to find the best solution”.
Young people buying their first home can continue to enjoy the preferential guarantee conditions of up to 80% until at least 30 September, after the 3-month extension decided by the government. Since it was introduced in 2021, the measure has allowed many under 36s to access advantageous conditions for taking out first home mortgages, so much so that – according to an analysis by Facile.it – if in the first half of 2021 applicants with less than 36-year-olds accounted for 43.4% of total applications for first home loans, between January and June 2023 this value reached 51%. “We warmly welcomed the government’s decision to once again extend the validity of the subsidy to young borrowers, as it has given young people extra time looking for their first home to buy,” continues Cresto. “As demonstrated by the numbers, the tool has been very important for the under 36s as it has given them concrete and greater possibilities to buy a house, consequently also supporting the real estate market. We can only hope, also given the particular market conditions in where we are, that the measure be extended to the whole of 2023 and, perhaps, also in 2024”.
According to the simulations of Facile.it, today for a 100% fixed mortgage without subsidy the fixed rates (Tan) available online start – for a loan of 180,000 euros over 25 years – from 4.75% with an installment of around 1,026 euros . By applying for the same type of mortgage but enjoying the discounts reserved for young people under the age of 36, rates starting from 3.60% can be found online, corresponding to an installment of 911 euros. Therefore, by accessing the facilitated conditions it is possible to save almost 115 euros per month compared to those who subscribe to the same mortgage, but without enjoying the concessions.
For aspiring borrowers who are grappling with the choice of mortgage today, there are not many doubts about which rate to subscribe to. According to the simulations of Facile.it, taking into consideration the standard mortgage used in the previous analysis, the best fixed rates (Tan) available online today start at 3.60%, corresponding to an installment of 638 euros, while for a variable mortgage the best offer starts from a Tan of 4.47% and an installment of 692 euros. The data shows how in this phase the first option to evaluate is that of a fixed-rate mortgage, which not only guarantees the stability of the installment but, given the data in hand, is even cheaper than the starting installment of a variable mortgage.