War in Ukraine: all possible scenarios of the conflict

There war in Ukraine, which began on February 24 with the Russian invasion, continues unabated. The Ukrainian resistance holds but the dead are already thousands and the refugees will soon arrive in the millions. Diplomacy seems unable to make concrete progress and the Moscow-Kiev talks have not yielded results. Here’s what could happen

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SCENARIO 1, THE SHORT CONFLICT – Russia has so far failed to give Ukraine an immediate push, as it probably expected. Putin could decide to increase the pace of the offensive, bomb with greater intensity and perhaps conquer the capital Kiev in a short time, as well as the ports on the Black Sea

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If the Russians were to start bombing even spared cities, such as Lviv, with a parallel exponential increase in refugee flows, Ukraine could raise the white flag. Putin could then think about putting a shadow government in Kiev, making it a satellite of Moscow. The war would end but there guerrilla and the resistance would continue for months or years

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SCENARIO 2, THE WAR AGAINST – The Russian vehicles are headed for Kiev and sooner or later the attack on the capital will be launched. However, this battle could also last weeks, if the Ukrainian resistance continues even under siege conditions

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It is one thing to conquer a metropolis, another thing is to govern it. And the Russians may not have the strength to do this in the long run. A wearing situation that could be replicated throughout the country, of enormous size. In short, the submission of the whole of Ukraine would require men, means and long times, with all the unknowns of the case

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SCENARIO 3, DIPLOMACY – In a stalemate, in which Russia fails to win and Ukraine is unable to liberate the invaded territory, it could lead to a compromise. Maybe Kiev will find itself forced to give up some territories (Crimea and Donbass) and undertake not to join NATO. And Moscow could then agree to leave Zelensky in his place in a weakened and less threatening Ukraine for the Russian sphere of influence.

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SCENARIO 4, THE WORLD WAR – If the escalation instead degenerates even more, Putin could continue with his invasion plans. It is no secret that you are targeting Moldova and Georgia. According to Zelensky, his opponent’s next step would be the Baltic countries. He could also find a pretext to accuse NATO of interference, resulting in attacks in Poland for example. At that point the conflict would become global

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With direct NATO involvement, there are also chances of conflict escalating into one atomic warfare. Putin has put his nuclear arsenal on alert and his moves are unpredictable. He also has weapons of this type at his disposal but “tactics“, That is, less powerful than those of strategic missiles but still capable of causing hundreds of thousands of deaths

SCENARIO 5, A RUSSIA WITHOUT PUTIN – Putin is surrounded by loyalists and dissent in Russia comes at a high price. But if a good number of generals, ministers or oligarchs feel the leader’s moves are out of control, they could overthrow him in a coup.

This scenario would lead to a change at the top in the Kremlinwith possible “amnesty”For Russia at the UN, NATO and EU tables. In spying circles this hypothesis is not ruled out. It is different to imagine that it can be implemented