War in Ukraine, IMF: recession risk for Italy, France and Great Britain

The conflict will have severe economic consequences. According to the International Monetary Fund, “very weak or negative quarterly growth is expected in mid-2022 for European countries”

The war in Ukraine “will have severe economic consequences for Europe, having struck when the recovery from the pandemic was still incomplete”. This was stated by the International Monetary Fund, underlining that with the war “new risks have emerged.” “The most worrying one – he continues – is a sudden stop in the flow of energy from Russia, which would cause significant losses for many economies”. (WAR IN UKRAINE, SKY TG24 SPECIAL – ALL UPDATES IN REAL TIME)

IMF: “weak or negative growth” in Europe

The International Monetary Fund then specified that for “some of the largest European economies such as France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy” “very weak or negative quarterly growth is expected in mid-2022”. It goes on to underline that this “setback of the recovery is hidden in the annual growth forecasts” which are affected by the rebound of 2021. The Fund has made a forecast for Italy of a GDP of + 2.3% this year, + 1.7% next and + 1.3% in 2024. The head of the European Department of the International Monetary Fund, Alfred Kammer, added that economies like “France, Germany, Italy and Great Britain are expected to grow barely or even contract for two consecutive quarters this year “.

Visco: “Economic convergence between countries at risk”

Today the Governor of Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco spoke at the meeting of the Development Committee of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and, at the end of his speech, he focused on the ‘peace dividend’ following the end of the Cold War. The war in Ukraine, Visco affirms, represents “a profound and dramatic change” that risks interrupting the process of economic convergence between countries that had emerged with globalization after the end of the Cold War, and could lead to “various balances that are difficult to predict. today”.

The consequences of war and pandemic

For Ignazio Visco, the levels of globalization and technological process reached before the pandemic had “facilitated a strong reduction of poverty”, albeit with significant losses in job security and welfare to be corrected. The pandemic first and the war between Russia and Ukraine then put this process at risk. However, Visco concluded, “the global community can foster fruitful collaboration within a multilateral framework”.