Weather, early February between anomalous heat and frost

Forecasts until Friday 3 February

Thermal swing: temperatures will rise suddenly by the weekend, especially in the maximum values; then, starting next Monday, we will have to take off our heavy coats again for the probable arrival of the icy Russian nucleus NìKola.

Lorenzo Tedici, meteorologist of the website, in fact confirms a decidedly dynamic picture with the comeback of the Azores anticyclone in the next few hours also in the South; good weather is expected almost everywhere with highs of up to 15 degrees even in the Po Valley. The high pressure will accompany us until Sunday, with some ‘moles’ to report: the lows in the morning will remain rather low with frozen rooms in the Center-North, some accumulations due to low clouds are not excluded in the Po Valley and along the Tyrrhenian side. Otherwise we will experience a pleasant and mild week during the day.

The surprise could arrive next week with a typical configuration almost like Buran, the characteristic wind of the steppes of the Sarmatian plain: the icy Russian core NìKola is approaching Italy bringing abundant snowfalls between Ukraine and Romania, with the frost spreading even on the neighboring Balkans.

At the moment, this cold air is expected to spread towards Italy from the Porta delle Bora as early as Sunday evening when initially some storm phenomena could persist on the Adriatic side also associated with local hailstorms out of season.

Subsequently, with the widespread influx of icy air, snowfalls are forecast as far as the Adriatic beaches from Veneto to Puglia, white flakes over most of the Central-South and a drop in temperatures of up to 10 degrees: therefore the swing will take us to rise by 5-8 degrees until Sunday and then suddenly drop by 10°C with the new week.

Obviously this is the coldest scenario predicted by the models; if then NìKola’s trajectory is more easterly (as sometimes happens when the irruptions arrive from Russia in a synoptic picture following a high pressure period in the Azores) then the snow phenomena will be more probable only from Abruzzo downwards.

Whatever happens, NìKola’s threat is real as at the moment we already have a lot of snow from Bucharest to Sarajevo and the Russian frost advancing towards Poland and the Czech Republic: in short, over a large part of Eastern Europe the winter of 2022-23 does seriously.

We will follow the descent of the icy Russian core, if it hits us it will be a decidedly rigid beginning of February.


Wednesday 1. In the north: mostly sunny except for fog at night. In the middle: clouds in the morning then sun. In the south: prevailing sun except passing veils.

Thursday 2nd. In the north: fine weather prevailing except for fog at night. In the middle: partly cloudy sky with more clouds over the Tyrrhenian Sea. In the south: maritime clouds over Campania and Tyrrhenian Calabria, prevailing sunshine elsewhere.

Friday 3. In the north: sunny except for local fog. In the centre: sun disturbed by maritime clouds along the Tyrrhenian Sea. In the south: sunny at times variable in Puglia.

Trend: the good weather continues with the dominance of the Azores anticyclone, possible arrival of cold air from Russia from Monday.