What will the weather be like until Friday 20 October?
The weather splits Italy in two, between strong bad weather in the North and sun in the South. This is the picture outlined by the weather forecast for today and tomorrow, with experts speaking of an autumn ‘weather bomb’ on the Peninsula. While the northern regions will therefore be hit by cloudbursts and windstorms, in the south they will have to deal with an unseasonal heat wave, with almost record values.
Cyclone Medusa arrives, the forecasts
As Antonio Sanò, founder of the website www.iLMeteo.it, explains, today we will experience an unstable context, characterized by irregular cloud cover and even some rain, especially in the South and in the central Tyrrhenian area. From Thursday 19th, however, things will change: a cyclonic vortex close to Portugal will move slightly northwards and will be absorbed by a second and much larger cyclone, Medusa: the latter will move towards our country, giving rise to a real own “weather bomb”. In fact, the incoming cold currents will fuel an explosive cyclogenesis on the Ligurian Sea: this is not an exaggerated or invented term, but rather a precise meteorological definition: a bomb cyclone (or, precisely, explosive cyclogenesis) occurs when an area of low pressure, located in the middle latitudes, sees the atmospheric pressure drop to its minimum pressure at a speed of at least one millibar (hPa) per hour for at least 24 hours. In practice this translates into abundant rainfall and violent gusts of wind with hurricane force which in this case could reach speeds of over 140 km/h: pay attention to Sardinia and part of the Ligurian Sea, here especially between the eastern Ligurian coast and the upper Tuscany where the risk of a powerful storm with waves up to 6 meters high is more than real between Friday 20th and the early hours of Saturday 21st.
Therefore, on the one hand it will give rise to a severe worsening of the weather, first in the North, where heavy rains and thunderstorms will arrive, then also in the Tyrrhenian area of the Center during the day of Friday 20 October. Violent storms cannot be ruled out at this juncture, especially in eastern Liguria, upper Tuscany and Friuli Venezia Giulia. On the other hand, the cyclone will attract very hot winds of African origin which will hit the South and central Adriatic sectors, causing an increase in temperatures in these areas, more marked in the southern regions where, by next weekend, it will seem like we are returning to the height of summer, with the mercury column possibly exceeding 32 degrees locally.
The southern winds will intensify from Libeccio on the Tyrrhenian side and from Scirocco on the Adriatic side, with the possibility of some storm surges and also the phenomenon of high water on the Venetian lagoon. In short, we will find ourselves faced with an Italy divided in two: Autumn will break out in the North and on the middle Tyrrhenian Sea, while in the South we will have to deal with yet another phase of unseasonal heat.
What the weather will be like in detail
Wednesday 18. In the north: scattered rain across most regions. In the center: precipitation in upper Tuscany, many clouds elsewhere. In the south: alternation between clouds and clear spells. Thursday 19. In the north: widespread bad weather in all regions. In the center: unstable over Tuscany, with frequent thunderstorms. In the south: good weather prevailing.
Friday 20. In the north: rain, thunderstorms and storms. In the center: strong bad weather on the Tyrrhenian sectors and Sardinia. In the south: rain and thunderstorms in Campania, sunny elsewhere.
Trend: weekend with widespread instability throughout the country.